Market View - September 02, 2009

Most Asian markets rose yesterday after a positive result from China’s PMI. Nikkei added 0.36% (+37.53 pts) to 10,530, Hangseng gained 0.75% (+148.11 pts) to 19,872 and Shanghai was up 0.60% (+15.98 pts) to 2,683. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 54 in August from 53.3 the month before. However, JCI fell 0.62% (-14.62%) to 2,326. Positive economic reports on housing and manufacturing did very little to uphold US equity markets. DJIA gave up 2% (-185.68 pts) to finish at 9,130 and Nasdaq also shed 2% (-40.17 pts) to 1,968. Pending home sales rose 3.2% in July, much better than the market expected. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management Index rose 8.18% to 52.9 in August. The Central Statistics Bureau announced yesterday that August’s inflation rose 0.56% mom or 2.75% yoy; slightly above 2.71% in July. This Thursday (3/0) Bank Indonesia will hold its monthly Rapat Dewan Gubernur. Markets expect BI to keep BI Rate at the current level 6.50%. On a seperate occasion, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani forecasted our GDP will expand 4.3% this year. Based on technical, indicators such as stochastic and MACD suggest JCI could continue its pullback. We would use 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 2,170 as our strong support and 70.4% fibo at 2,425 as our strong resistance. Today we expect JCI will be trading in a 2,316 to 2,346 range. Our picks are Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP, Buy, R-11,000, S-9,500), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Buy, R-4,000, S-3,225), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), and Unilever (UNVR, Buy, R-11,000, S-10,000).

Market View - August 31, 2009

Nikkei surged 2.89% to 10,238 while Shanghai plummeted 3.38% to 2,960 last week. Hangseng fell 0.50% to 20,199, DJIA was up 0.41% to 9,544. Trading was opened by a positive data from US; existing home sales rose 7.16% in July to 5.24 millions and a comment by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the global economy was beginning to emerge from recession. Speaking of Bernanke, President Obama nominated him for a second term as the Fed’s chairman. Positive reading kept coming as US consumer confidence rose to 54.1 in August and home price index also rose 15.44% in June. However investors worried about the Chinese stocks rally as the Chinese Government said they were not “blindly” optimistic about the economy. Also the Goverment plan to restain production in the steel and cement industries and to increase “guidance” over parts of the coal, glass and power industries. The week ended by another positive data from US. New home sales rose 9.62% to 433,000 in July, durable orders rose 4.9% in July, initial claims fell 1.72% to 570,000 and 2Q GDP fell 1.0% as expected. This week investors will focus on US data such as construction spending (31/8) and unemployment rate (4/9). From domestic, investors will wait for August’s inflation and Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia on Thursday (3/9). Last week JCI added 1.89% gains to 2,377. Our range for JCI this week is 2,362 to 2,386. We see 2,400 would be a short-term resistance and 2,425 as strong resistance. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-9,100, S-8,350), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Buy, R-3,425, S-3,125), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), and Bank Rakyat Indonesia(BBRI, Buy, R-8,250, S-7,150).

Market View - August 27, 2009

Asian markets rose yesterday in response to a better-than-expected US consumer confidence that rose to 54.1 in August, President Obama’s nomination of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term and a better-than-expected German business confidence that rose to 90.5 in August, which was the highest level since September last year. Nikkei surged 142.35 pts (+1.36%) to 10,639, Shanghai advanced 51.79 pts (+1.78%) to 2,967 and Hangseng added 21.08 pts (+0.10%) to 20,456. However, European markets fell due to lower-than-expected result from Swiss Life Holding AG. JCI was slightly down by 0.43 pts (-0.02%) to 2,380. US markets mostly moved flat despite better-than-expected result from new home sales and durable orders. DJIA added 4.23 pts to 9,543 while Nasdaq added 0.20 pts to 2,024. New home sales rose 9.62% to 433,000 in July and durable orders rose 4.9% in July. Asian Development Bank in their latest statement forecasted Indonesia would grow 6% next year. However, the ADB mentioned that Asia, including Indonesia, should expand the domestic demand in response to a weak export outlook. On technical, there is a strong resistance for JCI at 2,400, which is very near to today’s 2nd resistance at 2,399. Indicators such as stochastic and MACD histogram still indicated JCI was on the way up. However, lower metals and oil price could negatively effect our market today. Our range for JCI today is 2,368 to 2,389. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia(TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Jasa Marga (JSMR, Buy, R-1,950, S-1,750), PP London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-9,350, S-7,350), and Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP, Buy, R-11,000, S-9,500).

Market View - August 26, 2009

Asian markets retreated yesterday due to a drop in metals and oil prices. Investors also worried about the Chinese stocks rally as the Government said they were not “blindly” optimistic about the economy. Shanghai plummetted 77.62 pts (-2.59%) to 2,915, Hangseng slid 100.7 pts (-0.49%) to 20,435 and Nikkei was down 83.69 pts (-0.79%) to 10,497. JCI closed at 2,380, posted a 4.64 pts (+0.19%) gains. US market rose after a better-than-expected consumer confidence that rose to 54.1 in August, better than the 47.9 reading market expected. Home price index also rose 15.44% in June. DJIA was up 30.01 pts (+0.3%) to 9,539 while Nasdaq added 6.25 pts (+0.3%) to 2,024. The markets also reacted positively to President Obama’s nomination of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term. JCI traded mostly in negative territory yesterday, and finally managed to stay positive near the end of trading day.Technical indicators indicated a rebound on JCI. Stochastic increased and JCI yesterday managed to closed above MA20. MACD histogram though still below zero line but it increased gradually. Our range for JCI today is 2,360 to 2,391. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), PP London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-9,350, S-7,350), and Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP, Buy, R-11,000, S-9,500).

Market View - August 25, 2009

Asian markets rose more than 1% yesterday after a positive surprising existing home sales that rose 7.16% in July to 5.24 millions and a comment by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the global economy was beginning to emerge from recession. Markets also anticipate US consumer confidence to rise to 48 in August and new home sales to rise 1.56% in July to 390,000 units. Hangseng climbed 1.67% (+336.92 pts) to 20,535, Shanghai was up 1.10% (+32.66 pts) to 2,993 and Nikkei surged 3.35% (+342.85 pts) to 10,581. JCI added 1.79% (+41.97 pts) gains to 2,375 led by commodities shares.                                                                                                               Most US markets fell slightly yesterday led by financial companies and profits taking by investors. S&P 500 slid 0.05% (-0.56 pts) to 1,025 while DJIA was up 0.03% (+3.32 pts) to 9,509. Technical indicators started signaling a rebound on JCI. Stochastic increased and JCI yesterday managed to closed above MA20. MACD histogram though still below zero line but it increased gradualy. Our range for JCI today is 2,347 to 2,391. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam(PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-12,800) and United Tractors (UNTR, Buy, R-14,500, S-13,000).

Market View - August 24, 2009

Asian markets took another pullback last week. The week started by a dissapointing results from US housing data last week. Building permits fell 1.75% to 560,000 in July and housing starts fell 1.02% to 581,000. Markets plummeted on Wednesday (19/8) led by China as investors concern the tighter lending would hurt China’s economic growth. Positive economic and manufacturing data from US made markets rebound the next day as US leading indicators rose 0.6% in July and manufacturing in Philadelphia rose to 4.2 in August from -7.5 the month before. However, on Friday (21/8) investors once again worried about China shares as the China Banking Regulatory Commission plan to tighten capital requirements for banks. Nikkei fell 3.39% to ended at 10,597, Hangseng plummeted 3.32% to 20,199, Shanghai plunged 2.82% to 2,960. DJIA was up 1.97% due to surprising existing home sales that rose 7.16% in July to 5.24 millions. This week investors will wait for US consumer confidence (25/8), new home sales (26/6) and 2Q GDP (27/8). Market expect consumer confidence will rise to 48, new home sales to 390,000. 2Q GDP is expected to contract 1.4%. Last week JCI fell 2.22% to 2,333, the first pullback after five weeks rally. We expect the market would be very volatile in this week. Our range for JCI this week is 2,278 to 2,387. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,625, S-2,200), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-31,000, S-28,000), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-7,450, S-6,800) and Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Buy, R-3,425, S-3,125).

Market View - August 21, 2009

Asian markets rebound led by Chinese stocks as investors expected the US leading indicators would rise 0.7% in July and existing home sales would jump 2.25% in July to 5 millions. Meanwhile oil price, which rose to $72/barrel as the Energy Department report showed US stockpiles dropped 8.4 million barrels last week, became the positive catalyst for commodities stocks. Shanghai index jumped 4.52% (+126 pts) to 2,911 and Hangseng surged 1.88% (+374.63 pts) to 20,328. Nikkei was up 1.76% (+179.41 pts) to 10,383. JCI rebound by 2.23% (+50.89 pts) to 2,328. The Dow and Nasdaq posted gains as positive data from manufacturing and economic indicators released. DJIA added 0.8% (+70.89 pts) gains to 9,350 while Nasdaq was up 1% (+19.98 pts) to 1,989. US leading indicators rose 0.6% in July, slightly below market expectations. Manufacturing in Philadelphia rose to 4.2 in August from -7.5 the month before. We reiterate our view that JCI is in its pullback period and we expect the market would be very volatile in the next few days. Stochastic and MACD indicate no positive signal for JCI to rebound. One positive sign is that yesterday JCI closed slightly above MA20. Our range for JCI today is 2,295 to 2,346. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Sell, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Sell, R-2,625, S-2,200), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-31,000, S-28,000), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-7,450, S-6,800) and Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Sell, R-3,425, S-3,125).

Market View - August 20, 2009

Global markets plummeted yesterday led by China as investors concern the tighter lending would hurt China’s economic growth. The Shanghai Index plunged 4.3% (-125.30 pts) to 2,785 while Hangseng fell 1.73% (-352.04 pts) to 19,954. Nikkei slid 0.79% (-80.96 pts) to 10,204. Lower commodities prices dragged JCI down by 2.53% (-59.23 pts) to 2,277. US markets rebound after oil climbed to $72/barrel as the Energy Department report showed US stockpiles dropped 8.4 million barrels last week. DJIA gained 0.7% (+61.22 pts) to 9,279 while Nasdaq added 0.7% (+13.32 pts) to 1,969. Technical indicators such as stochastic, OBV and MACD confirm JCI is in a pullback period. Yesterday JCI closed around its MA20. Our third support today is at 2,140, slightly below a 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 2,170. We still view our market would take another pullback and it would be quite volatile. Our range for JCI today is 2,248 to 2,328. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Sell, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Sell, R-2,625, S-2,200), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-31,000, S-28,000), Bumi Resources (BUMI, Sell, R-3,225, S-2,850) and Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Sell, R-3,425, S-3,125).

Market View - August 19, 2009

Most Asian markets rebound yesterday as European markets were opened in a positive tone. Investors bet that German’s investor confidence, US’s building permits and housing starts will rise. Nikkei was up 16.35 pts (+0.16%) to 10,284 and Hangseng added 168.62 pts (+0.84%) to 20,306. JCI fell 49.88 pts (-2.09%) to 2,336. US market also rebound after Monday’s selloff. DJIA added 82.60 pts (+0.9%) to 9,217 and Nasdaq rose 25.08 pts (+1.3%) to 1,955 as better-than-expected earnings from Home Depot and Target Corp. However, data from building permits and housing starts were below market expectation. Building permits fell to 560,000 in July from 570,000 the month before and housing starts fell to 581,000 from 587,000. Rebound in global markets in our opinion will become a positive catalyst for JCI today. However, we still think market will be very volatile this week and is opened to correction. Technical indicators such as stochastic and MACD start indicating a pullback. Our strong support for JCI is at 2,170 which is also a 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Our range for JCI today is 2,293 to 2,381. Our picks are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-11,000), Int’l Nickel Indonesia(INCO, Buy, R-5,350, S-4,050), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-30,000, S-27,200), Aneka Tambang (ANTM, Buy, R-2,875, S-2,150) and Ciputra Development (CTRA, Buy, R-850, S-740).

Market View - August 18, 2009

Market was open in a positive mode last week in response to promising data from US unemployment rate Japan machinery orders. China’s retail sales expanded and UK housing market showed improvement in July while US productivity rose 6.4% in 2Q. However, Asian market took a pullback on Wednesday (12/8) as investors worried that China’s stimulus package could not completely offset slumping export demand. Market rebounded the next day as the Federal Reserve expressed their positive outlook that the recession was easing. The Fed also kept their rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. US Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in July and initial claims rose 0.72% to 558,000. Meanwhile the German and French economy grew 0.3% each in the 2Q from the 1Q. Last week DJIA fell 0.52% to 9,321. Hangseng surged 2.54% to 20,893 and Nikkei added 1.58% to 2,386. JCI was up 1.58% to 2,386 last week. Our GDP rose 4% yoy in the 2Q, a little bit lower than the 1Q’s 4.4% yoy. Morgan Stanley revised our economic growth in 2009 from 3.7% to 4.4% and 2010 from 5.0% to 5.5%. On political issue, the Constitutional Court rejected an appeal by by JK-W and Mega-Pro. Altough indicators such as OBV and stochastic show a bullish pattern, however a decrasing MACD histogram triggers a warning that JCI would take a pullback. It is likely JCI will take a correction to its 61.8% fibo at 2,170. Our range this week is 2,356 to 2,408. Our picks are Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300), PP London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-8,900, S-6,900), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-30,000, S-27,200), Aneka Tambang (ANTM, Buy, R-2,875, S-2,150) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia(TLKM, Sell, R-9,100, S-8,400).

Market View - August 14, 2009

Asian markets rose yesterday as investors reacted positively on the Federal Reserve’s comment that the recession was easing. Hangseng surged 426.06 pts (+2.08%) to 20,861 and Nikkei was up 82.19 pts (+0.79%) to 10,517. European markets also rose as the German and French economy grew 0.3% each in the 2Q from the 1Q. JCI rose 49.13 pts (+2.09%) yesterday to 2,396 led mostly by commodities stocks. DJIA only added 36.58 pts (+0.4%) to 9,398 and Nasdaq was slightly up by 10.63 pts (+0.5%) due to mix data from Walmart, retail sales and initial claims. Walmart posted a 2Q profit of 88 cents per share, 2.33% higher than markets estimate. However, this positive result was overshadowed by dissapointing results from retail sales and initial claims. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in July while market expected a 0.8% rise. Initial claims also rose 0.72% to 558,000 last week while market expected it could lower to 545,000. Positive results from German and French economy, together with the Fed’s outlook, in our opinion will boost investors’ confidence. The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index jumped to 58.12 in August, from 39.13. Indicators such as OBV and stochastic show a bullish pattern. However, a decrasing MACD histogram triggers a warning that JCI could take a pullback. We forecast JCI will test its 76.4% fibonacci retracement at 2,425 and if it fails, JCI will retrace to its 61.8% fibo at 2,170. Our range for JCI today is 2,359 to 2,420 and our picks are Indofood(INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300), PP London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-8,900, S-6,900), Ciputra Development (CTRA, Buy, R-850, S-740), Aneka Tambang (ANTM, Buy, R-2,875, S-2,150) and Timah (TINS, Buy, R-2,450, S-2,075).

Market View - August 13, 2009

Asian markets sank as investors worried the recent rally had made stocks expensive, especially after several companies posted a worse than expected results yesterday. Hangseng plunged 638.97 pts (-3.03%) to 20,435 after Great Wall Motor Co., China’s largest maker of pick up trucks, posted a 36% drop in 1H profit. Shanghai slid 83.43 pts (-2.6%) to 3,181 after the commerce ministry said the stimulus package cannot completely offset slumping export demand. Nikkei dropped 150.46 pts (-1.42%) to 10,435 as investors worried a stronger yen would hurt overseas profits for automakers such as Honda Motor Co. JCI declined by 51.92 pts (-2,16%) to 2,347. DJIA surged 120.16 pts (+1.3%) to 9,361 and Nasdaq was up 28.99 pts (+1.5%) to 1,998 after a positive outlook from the Federal Reserve, which said the recession is easing. The Fed also kept their rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. JCI declined to 2,347 yesterday, near to our 1st support at 2,324 based on JCI’S weekly chart. If the pullback continue our 2nd support will be 2,299. Our 1st resistance is at 2,367 and 2nd resistance is at 2,385. One critical point is our 3rd resistance at 2,428 which is very close to a 76.4% fibonacci retracement (2,425). Yesterday the Constitutional Court rejected an appeal by by JK-W and Mega-Pro. Our range for JCI today is 2,316 to 2,389 and our picks are Indofood(INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam(PTBA, Sell, R-14,800, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-36,300, S-30,000), Aneka Tambang (ANTM, Buy, R-2,875, S-2,150) and Timah (TINS, Buy, R-2,450, S-2,075).

Market View - August 12, 2009

Asian markets posted gains yesterday as China’s retail sales expanded and UK housing market showed improvement in July. Nikkei was up 61.2 pts (+0.58%) to 10,585, Hangseng added 144.7 pts (+0.69%) to 21,074 and Shanghai posted a 14.97 pts (+0.46%) gains to 3,264. JCI was up 9.71 pts (+0.41%) to ended at 2,399. DJIA slid 96.5 pts (-1.0%) to 9,241 while Nasdaq slid 22.5 pts (-1.1%) to 1,969 led by financial stocks after JPMorgan downgraded MBIA Inc to underweight and CIT Group delayed its quarterly filing. US productivity rose 6.4% in 2Q, better than the 5.5% market expected. Indicators such stochastic and MACD still show a bullish signals on JCI and its increasing volume confirms the signal. In our opinion JCI will try to break out our second resistance at 2,425 in the next few days, which also a 76.4% fibonacci retracement. Morgan Stanley revised our economic growth in 2009 from 3.7% to 4.4% and 2010 from 5.0% to 5.5%. Our range for JCI today is 2,378 to 2,412 and our picks are Indofood(INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-8,000, S-7,100), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-27,300, S-18,700), Aneka Tambang (ANTM, Buy, R-2,875, S-2,150) and London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-8,100, S-6,900).

Market View - August 6, 2009

Asian stocks fell yesterday after a dissapointing results from Isuzu Motors and Elpida Memory. Positive news from UK’s consumer confidence that rose to 60 could not help Asian markets. Nikkei plunged 122.48 pts (-1.2%) to 10,252 and Hangseng plummeted 301.66 pts (-1.5%) to 20,494. JCI fell 43 pts (-1.82%) to 2,317. US stocks fell after worse-than-expected report on job losses and service industries. DJIA fell 39.22 pts (-0.4%) to 9,280 and Nasdaq fell 18.26 pts (-0.9%) to 1,993. ADP Employer Services showed companies cut 371,000 workers in July, more than the 350,000 cut market expected. Meanwhile, the ISM’s index of service busineses fell to 46.4 in July from 47 the month before. Market expected ISM services will rise to 48. Bank Indonesia cut its BI Rate by 25 bps to 6.5% as expected. However, BI also indicated that further cuts might be unwarranted as inflation was expected to rise next year. Based on technical, JCI took a pullback after a three-weeks rally. Using fibonacci, we have a 76.4% retracement at 2,425 as our strong resistance and 61.2% retracement at 2,170 as a strong support. We expect another pullback in the coming days because of valuation play. Our range for JCI today is 2,296-2,350 and our recommendations are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-30,000, S-27,200), Adaro Energy (ADRO, Buy, R-1,450, S-1,260), Int’l Nickel Indonesia(INCO, Buy, R-5,350, S-4,050) and Indofood (INDF, Sell, R-2,300, S-1,730).

Market View - August 5, 2009

Asian markets ended mix yesterday as futures on US market fell into negative territory despite positive results from manufacturing index and construction spending. Nikkei added 22.54 pts (+0.22%) to 10,375 while Hangseng fell 10.83 pts (-0.05%) to 20,796. Higher oil and metal prices became the catalyst as market expected economic recovery. JCI added 21.29 pts (+0.91%) to 2,360 led mostly by commodity stocks. DJIA added 33.63 pts (+0.4%) to 9,320 as pending home sales rose 3.6% in June, higher than the +0.7% market expected. On corporate news, Caterpillar Inc. increased their earnings outlook from $8/share to $10/share in 2012. Japanese stocks opened positive this morning as Toyota Motor Corp. raised its outlook.                         Based on technical, JCI broke out its 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 2,170 and now tries to break out its 76.4% fibo retracement at 2,425. JCI’s weekly chart forms a soucer shape with its neckline at 2,556. If JCI breaks out 76.4% fibo retracement then it is possible JCI moves to 2,556 which is also this week’s third resistance. Bank Indonesia is expected to cut BI Rate by 25 bps to 6.5% today as inflation fell to 2.71% yoy in July, lower than June’s 3.65% yoy. Our range for JCI today is 2,339-2,382 and our picks are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,400, S-30,000), Adaro Energy (ADRO, Buy, R-1,450, S-1,260), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-8,000, S-6,500) and Jasa Marga (JSMR, Buy, R-1,940, S-1,680).

Market View - 4 August 2009

Most Asian stocks rose yesterday as encouraging comments came from Alan Greenspan and Nouriel Roubini. The New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, known as Dr. Doom, said that commodity prices may extend their rally in 2010 as the global recession abates. Earlier before, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recession might be ending. Nikkei slid slightly 4.36 pts (-0.04%) to 10,352 while Hangseng surged 233.93 pts (+1.14%) to 20,807. JCI added 15.56 pts (+0.67%) to 2,338. DJIA surged to 9,286, the highest level in 2009, posted a 1.3% (+114 pts) gain as positive results from manufacturing index, construction spending and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index. Manufacturing index rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June while construction spending rose 0.3% in June from -0.8% in May. China’s PMI rose to 52.8 in July, the hishest level in 2009, from 51.8 in June.                         The Central Statistics Bureau announced consumer prices rose 0.45% (mom) in July, or 2.71% yoy, lower than June’s 3.65% yoy. Lower inflation opened room for Bank Indonesia to cut BI Rate by 25 bps to 6.5% this Wednesday (5/8) on Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI. Our range for JCI today is 2,324-2,351 and our picks are Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300), Astra International(ASII, Buy, R-32,400, S-30,000), Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS, Buy, R-3,875, S-3,425), Int’l Nickel Indonesia (INCO, Buy, R-5,350, S-4,050) and Jasa Marga (JSMR, Buy, R-1,810, S-1,680).

Market View - 03 August 2009

It was another positive week for Asian markets last week despite Wednesday (29/7) selloff from China’s market. Nikkei surged 4.14% to 10,356 last week while Hangseng ended at 20,573, added a 2,96% gain. DJIA was slightly up 0.86% to 9,171. Data from US showed that the pace of economic decline slowed as mention in the Fed’s beige book. New home sales jumped 10.98% in June to 384,000 while initial claims reached 584,000 last week. 2Q GDP contracted 1%, better than the -1.5% market expected. However, US consumer confidence dropped to 46.6 in July, lower than June’s 49.3 reading. In Japan, factory output rose 2.4% in June. This week markets will wait for several US economic data such as construction spending (3/8), factory orders (5/8) and unemployment rate (7/8). Markets expect construction spending will contract 0.6% in June, better than May’s -0.9% while factory orders is expected to rise 0.5% in June, lower than May’s 1.2%. Markets also prepare for another high unemployment rate at 9.6% in July.                                                              JCI surged 6.32% last week, ended at 2,323. Bakrie’s shares and banking stocks led our market. For this week we forecast JCI will be in a 2,231 to 2,369 range. One positive catalyst for JCI would be a lower inflation. BPS forecast month on month inflation in July could be as low as 0.2%-0.5% and year on year at 3%. Our picks for this week are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,400, S-27,200), Bank Mandiri (BMRI, Buy, R-4,625, S-3,600), United Tractors (UNTR, Buy, R-13,500, S-11,500) and Bumi Resources (BUMI, Buy, R-3,500, S-2,300).

Market View - 31 July 2009

Asian markets rose yesterday, rebounding from earlier declines, as better than expected results from Mitsubishi Electric and Honda Motor. Also comment from China central bank that they will control lending growth by using market tools instead of quantity controls gave investors their confidence back. Nikkei was up 0.51% (+51.97 pts) to 10,165 and Hangseng added 0.49% (+98.58 pts) to 20,234. JCI surged 3.25% (+72.32 pts) to 2,298 led by Bakrie’s shares and banking stocks. Bumi Resources (BUMI) surged 10.23% (+225 pts) after the company released its plan to sell $200 million of convertible bonds. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) advanced 6.08% (+225 pts) after the company posted its better than expected 1H result. US markets rose as companies such as Motorola Inc. and MasterCard. Inc. posted better-than-expected earning results and initial claims held below June levels. DJIA added 0.9% (+83.74 pts) to 9,154 and Nasdaq was up 0.8% (+16.54 pts) to 1,984. Initial claims last week rose 4.47% to 584,000 but it was still below June’s 600,000 average. We are still bullish on JCI as we said yesterday in our Daily Technical. Technial indicators such as MACD, stochastic, moving averages show that JCI is on its upward trend. Earning results, commodity and metal prices and inflation still become our catalyst in the next few trading days. Today we expect JCI is in its 2,245-2,325 trading range. Our picks for today are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Bank Mandiri (BMRI, Buy, R-4,275, S-3,600), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300) and Bumi Resources (BUMI, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300).

Market View - 30 July 200c

Asian markets mostly ended in negative territory yesterday as investors sold their shares amid worse than expected earning results. A dissapointing US consumer confidence also became the negative catalyst for the markets. Hangseng fell 2.37% (-489 pts) to 20,135 while Shanghai plummeted 5% (-171 pts) to 3,266. Nikkei however was up 0.26% (+25 pts) to 10,113. JCI was slightly down by 0.5% (-11.29 pts) to 2,225. JCI touched its lowest at 2,190 in the start of the second session but positive opening from European markets cut JCI’s losses to ended higher at 2,225.  DJIA fell 26 pts (-0.3%) to 9,070 and Nasdaq also fell 7.75 pts (-0.4%) to 1,967 as durable orders dropped 2.5% in July, worse than the 0.6% drop market expected. The positive catalyst came from the Federal Reserve which in its beige book mentioned that the pace of economic decline slowed in June and July, indicating the worst of US downturn was closer to an end. From Japan, factory output rose 2.4% in June.  In our opinion yesterday was just another healthy correction. Technial indicator such as MACD still shows that JCI is on its upward trend. Earning results and inflation still become our catalyst. Positive review from the Fed and Japanese factory output should impact positively to our market today. We expect JCI will be moving in a 2,196 to 2,247 range. Our picks for today are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam(PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-22,250, S-16,000), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-1,730) and Semen Gresik (SMGR, Buy, R-6,250, S-5,250).

Market View - 30 July 2009

Sebagian besar pasar di Asia kemarin ditutup dalam teritori negatif seiring dengan aksi investor yang melepas saham mereka akibat laporan keuangan sejumlah perusahaan di China dan Hongkong yang berada dibawah ekspektasi pasar. Selain itu memburuknya data consumer confidence Amerika juga mendorong pasar melakukan aksi profit taking. Bursa Hangseng jatuh 2.37% (-489 poin) ke level 20,135 dan bursa Shanghai anjlok 5% (-171 poin) ke level 3,266. Nikkei ditutup naik tipis 0.26% (+25 pts) ke level 10,113. IHSG ditutup turun 0.5% (-11.29 poin) ke level 2,225. Saat awal perdagangan sesi kedua IHSG sempat menyentuh level terendah di 2,190. Namun pembukaan pasar Eropa yang positif berhasil membuat IHSG pulih dan akhirnya ditutup pada level 2,225.Menurut pendapat kami penurunan IHSG kemarin merupakan koreksi yang sehat setelah dua minggu mengalami rally. Laporan keuangan yang dibawah harapan pasar dijadikan pemicu aksi profit taking. Hal ini terbukti pulihnya IHSG menjelang penutupan sesi kedua seiring pembukaan positif bursa Eropa. Dari indikator teknikal seperti MACD terlihat pergerakan IHSG masih kuat. Kami melihat earning result dan data inflasi akan menjadi katalis bagi IHSG dalam perdagangan beberapa hari ke depan.Untuk hari ini kami proyeksikan IHSG akan bergerak dalam kisaran 2,196 – 2,247. Saham saham yang menjadi rekomendasi kami adalah Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-22,200, S-16,000), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-1,730) and Semen Gresik (SMGR, Buy, R-6,250, S-5,250)

Daily Review May 13, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1796-1865

After being in negative territory for almost the whole trading day, JCI finally managed a 0.6% gain (+11.28 points) closed at 1842. Investors took profit especially in the first session while in the second one news from regional market, especially from europe, gave a positive sentimen to JCI. Reports that China’s fixed-asset investment rose better-than-expected and Britain’s house-price slump eased became the catalyst. In asia market, Hong Kong, China, India & Vietnam also posted gains while others are closed in red.

DJIA finally has managed to closed in positive territory, up 50.34 points (+0.6%) to 8469 while Nasdaq and S&P 500 down. General Motors fell almost 21% to $1.15 amid its plan to file for bankruptcy. Oil reached its 3 months highest to $58.85/bl. Tonight US investors are waiting for April retail sales data. Markets expect a range between minus 0.2% to 0%, comparing to -1.2% March data.

Today we forecast JCI trading range are between 1857-1892, which we think Bakrie-related stocks such as BUMI, DEWA, ELTY, ENRG still become the main driver of JCI. Our top picks for today are BUMI (Speculative Buy, R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Speculative Buy, R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Hold, R-2950, S-2500), ELSA (Speculative Buy, R-410, S-340) dan PTBA (Hold, R-12100, S-9900).

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price : 2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss : 1750
Support : 1570

Not a day for taking a breath. We’re also running out of breath to tell about BUMI. Yesterday it was closed exactly at our target price & resistance level. From technical point of view we saw a divergence in picture. We still see a strong up trend for BUMI, yet its decreasing volume worries us. However, we still recommend BUMI. Should today BUMI once again beat our resistance, then our next resistance would be 3300.

TLKM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :5900
Support : 7100

If we look the past, we could see an interesting pattern about TLKM. Everytime its price touches down its MA20 or MA50 then TLKM would rebound. Yesterday we saw this pattern. Should the pattern repeats itself? Therefore we recommend a Speculative Buy on TLKM.

PGAS – Hold
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2100
Support : 2500

Posted a 100 points gain to 2725 yet its volume decrasing. However we think PGAS will be trading inside its support-resistance level. We still positive on PGAS for mid to long term view. But for day trader we recommend a Hold for today. We still wait for volume confirmation.

PTBA – Hold
Target Price : 12100
Resistance : 12100
Cut Loss : 8500
Support : 9900

Two days ago we saw a doji pattern. Yesterday we saw a hanging man pattern while PTBA closed at 10500, lost 100 points. Decreasing volume while prices are rising put us on alert. For today’s trade we position ourselves a little bit conservative. Hold on PTBA should be our reasonable recommendation.

ELSA – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 310
Support : 340

Back into our top picks radar. Yesterday ELSA once again posted a 35 points gain to closed at 385. What’s caught our attention is its spike volume. We think news about its shares sale still be the catalyst. Our trading target for ELSA is 410.

DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.

Daily Review May 12, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1857-1892

JCI was very strong in the first session yesterday but went into negative territory in the second session. Having touch the highest 1891 JCI plummeted to its lowest 1827, in which finally JCI was closed at 1830, down 31.79 points (-1.71%). Profit takings and an undecided regional market were the main catalyst for JCI yesterday. Nikkei was up 0.2% to 9451 while Hang Seng was down 1.7% to 17087.

DJIA lost 155.88 points last night and ended at 8418 while Nasdaq was down 7.76 points to 1731. Profit taking and banking stocks were the main drivers that dragged down US market. U.S. Bancorp, BB&T and Capital One announced to issue stock to pay the government back for bailout funds. In the mean time, General Motors CEO Fritz Henderson mentioned about the probability GM to file for bankruptcy.

Today we should still hope for another profit taking day. Our JCI trading range would be 1857 to 1892. We think the market has already run out of a positive catalyst. Our top picks for today are BUMI (Hold, R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Sell, R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Sell, R-2950, S-2500), ANTM (Hold, R-1920, S-1470) dan PTBA (Buy, R-12100, S-9900).

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Hold
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1600
Support : 1570

Yesterday BUMI was closed at 2000 which is near our 2175 target price. In fact, BUMI has already touched 2150 level before retraced to 2000. On technical view, we start seeing an exhausted move on BUMI. Therefore we recommend Hold on BUMI to see what this stock is going to do in the next couples of days. Don’t be too agressive.

TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :5900
Support : 7100

Down for a reason. TLKM has been in negative territory for three days in a row. It turns out because of less-than-expected 1Q09 result in which net profit down 23,4%. Three candle sticks formations shows a very bearish trend. Therefore we recommend Sell on TLKM.

PGAS – Sell
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2100
Support : 2500

We still see yesterday’s closing price of PGAS is just another profit taking. But lower high in the last three trading days is a worry to us. In the long term we’re bullish on PGAS but for the moment we think profit taking pressure is very high. We recommend a more conservative moves on PGAS. Take profit as anybody else.

PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 12100
Resistance : 12100
Cut Loss : 8500
Support : 9900

One of the stock that showed positive movement yesterday. We set our trading target of PTBA at 12100, which also serve as its resistance. We see a support at 9900. However we strick a cut loss level at 8500. Profit taking pressure is in the air. Don’t be too aggresive on PTBA. Besides, we’re afraid we see a doji formation yesterday.

ANTM – Hold
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1530
Support : 1470

Decrasing volume on higher price and closed unchanged after hit highest at 2125 is not a bullish sign. Our main catalyst for ANTM is nickel price. We should see what happen on nickle price to come to conclusion of ANTM. However, yesterday closing price at 1910 is very near of our 1920 target price. Having said that, we recommend a Hold for ANTM today.

DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.

Daily Review May 11, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1821-1883

Last week JCI posted another 7% gain, in which JCI was opened at 1729 (4/5) and closed at 1862 level (8/5). Bakrie-related stocks, especially BUMI, became the main driver of JCI strong movement. BUMI itself last week posted a 24% gains in which on Friday it was closed at 1930. Domestic economic factor that influence capital market was the decision by Bank Indonesia to reduce BI Rate to 7.25% level. And from US, the result of the 19 big financial institutions stress test became the catalyst for the week.

DJIA was up 164 points last Friday to 8574 after investors were confidence with US financial institutions. The stress banks results was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile from unemployment data showed a slight recovery in which April non-farm payroll reduced by 539,000 (better than March -663k) and unemployment rate reached 8.9%. Combined with initial claims data which published the day before, these data showed that the economy is on their way to recovery.

For this week we think there’s a moderate probability for correction. Our indicators has stated an overbought signal. We also saw BUMI last Friday cannot continue its rally; in which BUMI was down 1.5% on that day. Besides, all catalyst such as 1Q09 results, US stress banks tests, economics data has been poured out. Next data we’ve been looking for would be 2Q09 results. Our JCI trading range for today is 1821-1883. Our recommendations for today are Sell on BUMI (R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (R-8000, S-7100), Hold PGAS (R-2950, S-2500) & Speculative Buy on ANTM (R-1920, S-1470), TINS (R-2400, S-1760).

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570

On last Friday BUMI was closed at 1930, down 30 points. After in two days trying to break its 2175 resistance, we saw markets start selling at that level. We see 2000 level will be a very crucial. Markets will try to break it above. At this level, we recommend to hold on BUMI. Wait until correction to collect BUMI at lower level price.

TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100

We see TLKM price try to move back to its MA 50. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. But for a while we recommend a sell on TLKM, wait until it really touches its MA50.

PGAS – Hold
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500

From technical view we’re still bullish on PGAS. Though it’s not as volatile as BUMI, we see PGAS is trying to reach its 2950 resistance level. Technical indicators such as OBV, MACD support this notion. We recommend PGAS with a 2950 target price. From last Friday’s closing price, there’s still a 8% potential gain.

TINS – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 2400
Resistance : 2400
Cut Loss : 1625
Support : 1760

Last minutes rally. That’s what happened on TINS last Friday. Fundamentally, strong tin price should be a catalist for TINS to surge 14.4% to 2025. Technically, last week rally was a bit worry. Indicators like MACD and volume showed a bearish divergence. Also last minutes rally should raise a questions. However, we think strong tin price still be a good reason for TINS. We give a speculative buy on TINS with cautions.

ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470

Identical twins with TINS yesterday. Surged 10.4% in the last minutes rally. But we have several indicators that contradict to this rally. (1) volume decrasing; (2) MACD up; (3) OBV up; (4) stochastic overbought. We still give a speculative buy on ANTM with cautions.



DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading only.

Daily Review May 08, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1806-1854

Optimism not only visited ISX but also regional market. Nikkei was up 4.5% while Hang Seng up 2.3%. Our beloved JCI yesterday gain 1.7% (30.5 points) to 1828. BUMI once again became the darling. In the first session BUMI basically moved in sideways but flying to the moon in the second session. BUMI transaction value reached Rp 2.4 trillion or 27% of total ISX transaction (Rp 8.9 trillion). Anticipation of the result of US bank test still becomes the catalist of global market.

Investors sell on news last night after the Federal Reserved announced its stress test results. DJIA was down 102.43 points (-1.2%) to 8409 while Nasdaq down 2.4% to 1716. Ten out of 19 financial institutions need additional capital of $75 billion. Amongst them are Bank of America needs $33.9B, Wells Fargo $13.7B, Citigroup $5.5B & Morgan Stanley $1.8B. Banks that are considered not needing additional capital are JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sach Group, American Express, Capital One Financial & MetLife Inc. Meanwhile, Initial Claims for unemployment down to 601,000 (previous 631,000) and Productivity for 1Q09 rose 0.8% (4Q08 -0.4%).

Today we projected for JCI with trading range of 1806-1854. We are opened to profit taking since it’s been quite a week rally, sell on news of the stress banks result & it’s Friday. Catalyst for up trend would be from commodities & metals stocks (oil, nickel & tin surged last night) Our recommendation for today would be BUMI (Buy; R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Hold; R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Buy; R-2950, S-2500), ELSA (Hold; R-410, S-300) & ANTM (Buy; R-1920, S-1470).

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Profit Taking/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570

Another marvelous day for BUMI’s lovers. Just like two days ago, yesterday BUMI mostly moved flat in the first session but shoot up in the second session. BUMI moved from lowest 1810 to 1960, up 10.7%. Looking at its volume, we get confirmation of its move. But once again, anything can happen to BUMI. We still maintain our speculative buy on BUMI with 2175 target price.

TLKM – Hold
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100

When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level. For the mean time we put a hold on TLKM. But in the mid to long run we’re positive about TLKM. Our trading target price would be 8000.

PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500

After breaking its 2600 resistance we think PGAS took a short break. Yesterday it was down 100 points to 2675. We should see whether this is just a pullback or else. From the volume analysis we still see an uptrend on PGAS. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.

ELSA – Speculative Buy/Profit Taking
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300

After surged 9% two days ago, yesterday ELSA closed unmoved at 345. We could think of two reasons. (1) investors are taking profit on news; (2) investors were too busy on BUMI. News about ELSA has been out such as its dividen announcement, its upcoming projects for FY09. The only think investors are waiting is confirmation about ELSA’s shares sale. For a short term trading we think should take a profit, but for those with longer term we still recommend a speculative buy.

ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470

Strong nickel price in international market boost ANTM price to 1730 yesterday. We still set a speculative buy on ANTM. However we find a less encouraging pattern from ANTM chart. (1) yesterday gap could become ‘an island’; (2) decreasing volume while price spike. Don’t too aggressive on ANTM.


DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.

Daily Review May 07, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1761-1817

Full of uncertainty in the first session but very strong in the second one. That’s what happened at JCI yesterday. In the first session, JCI jumped up and down between negative & positive territory in a 1761-1783 range. But once in the second session strong movement start coming, lead by ELSA, TLKM, PGAS, ANTM and especially BUMI. In the first session BUMI is all but positive. But in the middle of second session BUMI rose from 1620 to 1770 (+5.4%). JCI itself posted a 1.48% gain (+26.26 points), closed at 1798. In the regional market, STI jumped 5% after a better-than-expected results from UOB & OCBC earnings.

Indication that the banks stress results would be announced tomorrow in which banks may not require much additional capital has boosted investors confidence in US market last night. DJIA was up 1.2% to 8512 while Nasdaq closed at 1759 (+0.3%). American Express, JPMorgan Chase & Bank of New York Mellon Corp were reported successfully passed the the test. Another positive economic data was the ADP National Employment Report showed that April private sector employment fell by 491,000, much better than the 708,000 job lost in March.

For today’s trading we forecast JCI will move in a 1761-1817 range. Results of stress banks in United States will be watched by investors, though we think whatever the result our market still show some upward movement. Our top five stocks pick would be ELSA, BUMI, PGAS, TLKM & ANTM. Watch for metals stocks as nickel up 5.8% & tin up 6.7% last night.

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1420
Support : 1570

What can you say about BUMI then. Another comeback from lowest 1620 to highest 1770 yesterday, BUMI finally managed to closed at its 1770 highest, surge +5.4%. Strong indicator that the markets is trying to fly BUMI. We still manage our trading target price 2175 & up grade our support to 1570. We recommend speculative buy or hold for BUMI.

TLKM – Buy
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100

TLKM yesterday has became one of the supporter for JCI closing in positive territory. TLKM itself gain 150 point to 7850. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level.

PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2250
Support : 2500

PGAS has managed to break up our 2600 resistance yesterday with strong volume. Therefore we are very optimistic about this stock moving toward our next resistance and target price 2950. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.

ELSA – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300

Back to ELSA. Yesterday posted a 9.5% gain with strong volume. News that Pertamina is seriously considering to buy 37.15% ELSA shares became the catalist. Up to now, Pertamina has already had 41% stake at ELSA. In the coming days we’re still be hearing news about this corporate action. Our target price would be 410.

ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470

ANTM yesterday rose 7.8% to 1650, cross above its 1620 resistance. Hence we’re up grading our resistance & target price to 1920. Yet we’re still maintain our support at 1470 to be a bit conservative. News that nickel price at after-hours trading in London rose to $12,230 (+2.8%) became the catalist for ANTM rally. For the up coming days, we’re about to see ANTM moves in accordance to nickel prices. Speculative buy on ANTM.


DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.

Daily Review May 06, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1784-1829

After five days in a row posting gains, yesterday finally JCI closed in negative territory at 1772, down 16.07 points (-0.90%). Profit takings in blue chips such as ISAT, BBRI, TLKM & PTBA dragged index down. Even BUMI cannot hold its yesterday’s highest at 1770, in which at the closing time BUMI closed at 1680. In banking stocks, markets took profit after Bank Indonesia announced its BI Rate cut to 7.25%. This is a sell on news act. The Jakarta Finance Index fell 2.8% yesterday and was the worst sector performance at JCI. Palm oil July futures in Malaysia Derivatives Exchange down 2% to 2647 ringgit in the concern of over supply stockpiles. CPO related stocks such as SGRO, AALI, LSIP suffered because of this news.

US market ended lower last night as investors booked their paper profits. DJIA lost 16.09 points to end at 8410 while Nasdaq lost 9.44 points to 1754. The Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the economy will bottom & start to rebound later this year but the recovery process will be slow & choppy. Meanwhile, it is reported that 10 of the 19 banks may require additional cpaital. Speculations amongst the 10 are Bank of America, Citigroup & Wells Fargo.

Today we forecast the urge of profit taking is still in the air. Our JCI range would be 1784- 1829. Be vary concern of 1785 level because we think this is a turning point level. If the index moves below this level, we should expect the correction continue to 1657. We recommend our investors to take profit and be more concervative. We see a fatigue in the market. However, for mid to long-term horizon we still recommend BUMI, PGAS, PTBA, AALI & ADRO

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Hold
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1300
Support : 1200

Even BUMI cannot hold its highest price level yesterday. After reaching 1770 level, BUMI finally closed at 1680. Profit taking was the cause of this. Investors feel like to cash out their paper profit on BUMI. We think in the short run there would be another profit taking. From stochastic point of view, we should expect a momentary down trend. We recommend to hold on BUMI, collect again once its Stochastic shows oversold.

PTBA – Hold
Target Price :10500
Resistance : 10500
Cut Loss :7800
Support : 9000

Even a strong blue chip cannot hold on once a profit taking happen. From technical view, we see a momentary down side movement due to overbought. But for mid term horizon we still recommend PTBA. Same as BUMI, wait for a while until its Stochastic shows oversold signal. We still positive about our trading target price at 10500 for PTBA.

PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2600
Cut Loss : 2050
Support : 2500

PGAS closed exactly at our 2600 resistance level, after touched its highest at 2650. Seeing its volume spike, we still confidence PGAS will continue its rally today; unless some strong profit taking evaporates its strong momentum. We recommend a buy for PGAS with caution today. Be careful for profit taking.

AALI – Hold
Target Price : 18300
Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 14500
Support : 16000

Profit taking, overbought & correction on palm futures caused AALI fell 100 point to 18000 yesterday. News that July palm oil futures at Malaysia Derivatives Exchange down 2% became the catatlist for AALI (and its peers) yesterday. For the meantime, we downgrade our daily recommendation on AALI from Buy to Hold. However, we still positive of our 18300 trading target price.

ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300
Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss : 910
Support : 1000

Markets still waiting for the confirmation on who’s going to buy ADRO stakes still be the main catalist for this stock. Though we’re not being conformed yet, but it’s been said in the street that the aquisition price should be aroung 1100-1200. However, we’re still very positive on ADRO. Therefore our recommendation still a Buy with 1300 price target for short term trading.

Daily Review May 05, 2009

MARKET OVERVIEW

Today’s Range : 1733-1825

JCI yesterday posted a significant gain, in which up 3.39% (+58.56 points) to 1788 level. This strong movement in accord with regional market. Markets welcome ASEAN+3 $120 billion foreign-currency reserve pool as a positive sign. Also, data of China April’s Purchasing Manager Index that surge to 53.5 level give markets something to cheer. JSX transaction reached Rp 6.2 trillion, advance 20% from last Friday value. Bakrie’s stocks, banking, commodities stocks lead the rally. BUMI gain 8.55%, USNP +10.71%, DEWA +9.45%, BMRI +3.51%, BBNI +6.06% and BBRI +7.68%. Besides those, PGAS also up 3% whila PTBA +6.56%.

DJIA gain 214.33 points (2.61%) closed at 8426.74 while Nasdaq also up 2.58% to 1763 last night after investors are positive by some better-than-expected economic results. March pending home sales index jumped 3.2% while construction spending rose 0.3%. Over the weekend, Warren Buffett made a commend that he thought the recession is coming to an end and no big banks will fail. His comment and several economics data makes investors are more confident.

Today we forecast JCI still in a positive territory. Our trading range should be 1733-1825. Our top picks still of commodities (CPO price surged 12.2% to US$830/ton yesterday), mining (commodities prices) & banking sectors (possibility of BI Rate cuts). Our recommendation to buy BUMI, AALI, ADRO, PTBA, PGAS.

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175
Cut Loss :1300
Resistance : 2175
Support : 1200

Yesterday BUMI’s trade value reached Rp 1.49 trillion, which is almost 24% share of total JSX value (Rp 6.12T). Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. Technically we see a strong support at 1570, but we upgrade our resistance to 2175. Our mid-term target would be 2175.

PTBA – Buy
Target Price :10500
Cut Loss :7800
Resistance : 10500
Support : 9000

Together with others commodities stocks, yesterday PTBA managed to gain 6.6% closed at 9750. This level has violated PTBA strong resistance at 9500. Considering its volume, we’re very positive today PTBA will post another gain if the total market moves into positive territory. We recommend PTBA a buy with our short term target price at 10500.

PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Cut Loss : 2050
Resistance : 2600
Support : 2500

PGAS has tried to break its 2600 resistance yesterday but failed. We should see any attempt today for there’s a positive momentum for commodities price. Should this resistance being broken, we set our target price at 2950. Considering high volume in the last three trading days, we still a positive movement on PGAS.

AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300
Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 14500
Support : 16000

Rising in CPO price has had a positive impact on AALI. Yesterday AALI once again posted a 5.2% gains, closed at 1810 which in fact near our 18300 target price. Today we expect AALI still continue its up trend movement amid CPO price. Should our 18300 has been reached, our next target price would be 22200.

ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300
Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss : 910
Support : 1000

Optimism in commodities prices and the hope of new investors once again surged ADRO price to 1140. Though we’re not being conformed yet, but it’s been said in the street that the aquisition price should be aroung 1100-1200. However, we’re still very positive on ADRO. Therefore our recommendation still a Buy with 1300 price target for short term trading.

Daily Review May 04, 2009

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1705-1752

JCI last Friday closed at 1729, not much difference from the day before. JCI only booked 6.2 points or 0.4%. There’re two main drivers of JCI last week. First, the announcement of inflation, in which on April posted a deflation of 0.31% (mom). Inflation for yoy +7.31% and ytd +0.05%. Another driver was the announcement of corporate first quarter result. ANTM’s 1Q09 profit down 87% from a year before to Rp 90 billion while PGAS’s FY08 profit down 45.5% to Rp 633.85 billion due to forex loss. ANTM down 4.2% (closed at 1370) & PGAS down 3.8% (2500).

Last week was an amazing week for JCI, in which it posted a 8% gains. On Monday (27/4) JCI opened at 1591 and closed on Friday (1/5) at 1729. April’s deflation data gave investors confidence for another BI Rate cuts. In the mean time, in US market DJIA also posted a 1% gain, opened at 8073 on Monday & closed on Friday at 8212. News about Chrysler filled a Chapter 11 & a rising in Consumer Confidence to 39.2 gave investors ideas that the deteriorating has slowed.

For today we forecast JCI will move in a 1705-1752 trading range. News about deflation & corporate 1Q08 still will be the main driver. Our top picks for today are BUMI (target price 2175), UNTR (9750), SGRO (1830), AALI (18300) & ADRO (1300). All given a buy recommendation except for SGRO which we encourage our investors to take profit.


Today’s Top Picks

BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 1570
Cut Loss :1210 Support : 1200

Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. There’s only one reason we recommend BUMI; simply because of the herd mentality. Meaning we buy BUMI because everybody buy it. We sell BUMI because everyone does it. As simple as that. No string attached. Technically we see a strong support at 1570. Our mid-term target would be 2175. Investors please be careful, the volatility, the risk in this stock is very high. Once something become wrong, don’t hesitate to cut your position. In the mean time, just enjoy the ride.

UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 9750
Cut Loss :7450 Support : 7550

Another 3.3% gain. In the last two days trading UNTR has booked 16% profits. Also in two days it broke its two resistance level; first at 8100 then at 9000. Our next resistance is 9750. However, the decreasing volume should be a warning to traders. But for mid-term view we still recommend a buy on UNTR. Our short-term target price woulde be 9750 while our mid-term target price is 10750.

SGRO – Take Profit
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1710
Cut Loss : 1340 Support : 1600

Slow but sure; that SGRO is all about. In the full month of April itself SGRO has gain 30% profit. The up-trend in CPO price has been a factor to SGRO movement. We still see a mid-term uptrend for SGRO. There’s a resistance at 1710; which has been tasted last Friday but failed back to 1680. Should this 1710 resistance being crossed above, we set our short-term target price at 1830. But amid weak weekly technical, we recommend to take profit first for SGRO.

AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300 Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 13700 Support : 16000

Another day for one of Astra related stock. Last Friday it’s time for AALI to surge quite high. It has finally crossed above its 16000 resistance level and closed at 17200. The increasing volume in the last three days showed a strong injection into AALI. We set our next target price and resistance at 18300. However, investors should expect a correction as traders book their profit.

ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300 Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss :850 Support : 1000

News San Miquel and others company to buy stake at ADRO keep boosting its price up to 1200, in which being said as the selling price. But we’re not confirm about this level. However, ADRO last Friday has crossed above its resistance level at 1000. We should test this level in the coming days. Should this last, we set our next resistance at 1300. From fundamental side, ADRO has reported its 1Q09 result; which it booked a Rp 1.14 trillion profit comparing to a Rp 12.5 billion loss at 1Q08. We recommend a buy on ADRO.

Daily Review May 01, 2009

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1647-1767

A WOW factor. That’s what I called of what happened yesterday. JCI gains +4.78% (+78,58) to 1722 lead by banking, mining & infrastructure stocks. Not only it’s been driven by blue chips, JCI’s transaction value has gone back to Rp 5.8 trillion again, up 86% from the day before. In term of volume, trading was up 179%. Movement in the second session, especially near the end of trading time, show a very strong spike. This kind of chart should mean nothing but optimism. What’s suprising was PGAS. After mostly un-moved during the first session, it boosted up exactly at 2:36 PM & finally closed at 2600 (+10,6%). Nickels-related stocks like ANTM & INCO also surge quite big due to strong nickel price. And don’t forget about banking (BBRI, BDMN, BMRI) which up more than 6%. Only BBCA that lagging yesterday.

DJIA was open quite strong but news Chrysler has begun bankruptcy proceedings dragged Dow down 17.61 points (-0.22%) to 8168.12. Weekly jobless claims fell to 631,000 last week while personal income down -0.3% & personal spending -0.2%, which is worst than February data.

INVEST! That’s our mode right now. Since JCI keep closing above its MA200, we see an up-trend ahead. Jump into blue chips especially banking, commodities & mining. Today’s JCI range should be 1647-1767. Optimism is still on the air but be aware of profit taking; especially of what happen on Wall Street last night. For today our picks are TLKM, UNTR, ASII, PTBA.


Today’s Top Picks

TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900
Cut Loss :6250
Resistance : 7900
Support : 7000

Blue chips is on the chase. Three days ago TLKM rose +4.9%, two days ago still up +2%. And finally yesterday another gain of +2%, in which TLKM closed at 7850. It’s very near our short term target. Technically, 7900 level is a triple tops pattern. So if today’s trading TLKM could break up 7900, we’re very very bullish on TLKM. Should this happens, we raise our target on TLKM to 8750. Otherwise, it should retrace to its 7000 support level.


UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750
Cut Loss :7200
Resistance : 9000
Support : 7100

Incredible. UNTR yesterday gain 13% (+1050 points) to 9000. Result of 1Q09 profit that jump 57% to Rp 812 billion boost UNTR price yesterday with a very high volume. Being closed at 9000, UNTR has broken up its 8100 resistance level. Our next resistance level would be 9000. We still recommend investors to trade on UNTR with our target price 9750.

ASII – Buy

Target Price : 21100
Cut Loss : 14400
Resistance : 21100
Support : 16000

Another Astra-related stock that posted a massive gains. ASII rose +14% yesterday closed at 18000. This level not only has reached our target price 17800 but also break up its strong resistance 16000. We’re still bullish on ASII. Therefore we’re up grade our target price and resistance to 21100 & support level to 16000. However, we should expect a pull back below 16000 level because we still have to test whether this new support could hold on. Stil buy on ASII.


PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 10500
Cut Loss : 7600
Resistance : 10500
Support : 8350

Another stock that try to break up its resistance. PTBA yesterday closed at 9100 (+4.55%) break up a bit its 9000 resistance. Since first week of April PTBA was not succeed in breaking this level. However, yesterday we saw a strong volume for PTBA. We’re bullish on PTBA for short term trading. Our target would be 10500.

PGAS – Buy
Target Price :2950
Cut Loss :2075
Resistance : 2950
Support : 2225

After mostly un-moved during the first session, PGAS boosted up exactly at 2:36 PM & finally closed at 2600 (+10,6%). Being closed at 2600 PGAS has broken up its strong resistance 2500, not mentioning has violated our short term target of 2500. Our next target would be 2950, which is our next resistance also. We are bullish on PGAS for long-term holding (2009-10 horizon).

DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.

Daily Review April 30, 2009

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1580-1662

Back into blue chips. Again JCI gain 3.02% on yesterday closed at 1644 (+48.27%). We see a very strong movement near the closing time which volume jumped. Optimism in emerging market was one of the main driver. Regional index also closed up around 2%. MSCI Asia Pacific (excl. Japan) rose 2.3%. We really like yesterday strong market because it was driven by blue chip. Stocks like UNTR, BBNI, PTBA, ASII, BDMN & TLKM were booked in the top ten by value.

US market was spectacular last night. DJIA posted gain +2.11% to 8185.78 while Nasdaq closed at 1711.94 up +2.28%. Statements from the Fed that the recession has started to ease gave investors confidence. Also the Fed at FOMC last night kept their rate steady at 0.00%-0.25%. Despiste US 1Q08 GDP data which shows contraction -6.1%, investors chose to ignore negative news. They prefer to listen to the positive one such as Consumer Confidence that rose to 39.2.

We’re a bit more cheerful than yesterday in our market review. Strong movement from blue chips is an indicator we like so much. Then optimism on Wall Street last night confirm our notion for today. Commodities & metal prices up on average 2%-4% amid optimism that the recession is on the bottom right now. For today’s range JCI will be 1580-1662. We cast out our second liners picks and move to blue chips. Watch for commodities, metals & infrastructures stocks. We recommend a buy on TLKM, UNTR, ASII, PTBA & PGAS.


Today’s Top Picks

TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000

After rose +4.9% two days ago, yesterday again TLKM up +2.7%. We belive TLKM result still effect investors to persue this blue chip. We have several reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We still recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.

UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 8100
Cut Loss :6350 Support : 7100

Result of 1Q09 profit that jump 57% to Rp 812 billion boost UNTR price yesterday with a very high volume. UNTR closed at 7950, up 550 points (+7.38%). We recommend investors to trade on UNTR with our target price 9750. However, we see a resistance at 8100. So once the price moving up near this level, we should expect a correction. However if the market is very strong, we believe that resistance will be pass above easily.

ASII – Buy
Target Price : 17800 Resistance : 16000
Cut Loss : 12600 Support : 14450

ASII is moving up near its strong resistance at 16000. This resistance has been in existance for almost a month. We would see whether today’s trading ASII is able to break up that level. High volume trading of yesterday makes us confidence in ASII for short term trading. Our target price would be 17800. However, if ASII fail its resistance, it should be moving back toward support 14450.

PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 10500 Resistance : 9000
Cut Loss : 7250 Support : 8350

Another stock that try to break up its resistance. PTBA yesterday closed at 9100 (+4.55%) break up a bit its 9000 resistance. Since first week of April PTBA was not succeed in breaking this level. However, yesterday we saw a strong volume for PTBA. We’re bullish on PTBA for short term trading. Our target would be 10500.

PGAS – Buy
Target Price :2500 Resistance : 2500
Cut Loss :1875 Support : 2225

For two days trading PGAS has been up. Technically we see PGAS try to move toward its resistance at 2500, which in our opinion is a strong resistance & serve as our short term target. But for long-term holding (2009-10 horizon), we are very bullish on PGAS. But we are concern about its decrasing volume. In this case, our recommendation would be buy for mid to long term holding. Should our target 2500 being reached, our next target would be 2950.


DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.

Daily Review April 29, 2009

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1564-1629

Quite amazing JCI yesterday. While regional bourses closed mostly down amid the swine flu, JCI has managed to close up 1.26% (+19.83 points) to 1595. The main drivers besides Bakrie related stocks was TLKM which 4.9% due to better-than-expected result for FY08. Yet, instead of being joyful, we are afraid of what happened to JCI was a pumping-the-market scenario. Because technically, we’re seeing a down trend for JCI since April 21; in which JCI has cross below its MA200.

The fear of the swine flu becomes a pandemic, which in turn will have a negative impact to the already declining economy, and the worry about the health of US banks put US markets down last night. DJIA closed down a bit to 8016 (-0.10%) while Nasdaq down 0.33% to 1673. Reports that Bank of America & Citigroup still need more capital added more tension to Wall Street. The bright sight is the Consumer Confidence Index in April rose to 39.2 from 26.9 in March.

Today we expect JCI range would be 1564-1629 with the possibility of profit taking. We’re strongly advice our investors to be more conservative; take profit & don’t be too aggressive, focus on blue chip, and hold a cash reserve. In our top picks we’re already suggested to take some profit for several stocks we’ve recommended earlier. Take profit on KLBF, AALI. Hold on SGRO, ADRO. And our new pick is TLKM on buy.


Today’s Top Picks

TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000

Yesterday TLKM closed up 350 points (+4.9%) to 7450. We believe TLKM was one of the driver that keep JCI in positive territory. We have xx reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.


KLBF – Profit Taking
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860

We predict KLBF will surge amid positive sentiment on pharmaceutical stocks but it lost its power. Yesterday KLBF closed at previous level 870 while its peer (KAEF, INAF) up 6%. For the moment we think this is just because investors that has jumped in earlier took their profit. However, we recommend our investors to be conservative on KLBF. Don’t speculate too much on it. Yes technically we see a strong movement; but we don’t know when it ends.


SGRO – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560

Despite weakness in CPO price, SGRO yesterday managed to book a 1.2% gain; closed at 1640 SGRO up 20 points. We still see SGRO move between its support-resistance trading range. We recommend our investors to hold a mid to long term view on SGRO because we see this stock has a strong fundamental and technically in upward trend. Having said that, se still recommend SGRO.


AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600

Not so strong movement it was on AALI yesterday. It corrected 200 points (-1.3%) to 1550. Correction on CPO price we suspect to be the main driver for AALI. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI. Watch everytime AALI price touched or cross below a bit its MA20, it usually a buying point signal.


ADRO – Profit Taking
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880

News released by InvestorDaily about ADRO’s former shareholder put a little burden on ADRO price yesterday; in which down 20 points to 1000. This level is our resistance level. We’re not sure how this news will impact ADRO fundamentally, and from yesterday trading we think we haven’t seen the market capitalized the news. Therefore we take a little cautious on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.


DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal purpose only.

Daily Review April 28, 2009

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1567-1604

JCI yesterday closed in red, down 15.25 points (-0.96%) to 1576.08. That was five days in a row JCI closed down. Regional market also closed weak yesterday because the fear of the swine flu will slow the global economy recovery. CPO stocks mostly down led by UNSP -5.6%, LSIP -5.1% & SGRO -4.7%. Only AALI which showed a little downside which only -0.9%.

The fear of swine flu has finally been capitalized on Wall Street. Last night DJIA closed at 8025 down 51.29 points (-0.64%) while Nasdaq closed at 1679 down 14.88 points (-0,88%). Also the fear that the flu will have the same or worse impact such as SARS and will effect the economic recovery has pushed down commodities and metals prices. Oil, CPO, nicke, tin prices down on average of 1.4% to 2%.

Concerning all that happens last night amid the swine flu and the weak prices of metals & commodities, we expect JCI will be in negative territory today. Our range would be 1567-1604. Our second support would be 1559 & the third support on 1535. Be cautious on commodities & metals stocks but be watching pharmaceutical stocks. For today’s trading we pick AALI, SGRO, ADRO, INDF & KLBF. Some for profit taking & some for new positions.


Today’s Top Picks

INDF – Profit Taking
Target Price :1290 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1160

Yesterday INDF closed down 30 points to 1220. This level is a bit below of our previous target price (1230). We see yesterday trading just a correction, influenced by profit taking in CPO stocks. But we suggest our investors to take profit for CPO related stocks since we are a bit concern about this swine flu will affect commodities price. Still we put a buy recommendation on INDF with 1290 target price.

KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860

Up 70 points to 870 yesterday KLBF has reached our 810 target price. However we still see a short term up trend for KLBF. Hence we up grade our trading target price to 920 and our support to 860. We still see a strong market movement on KLBF. But investors has to be very aware about KLBF price movement. Once it shows a weakness then we urge to take profit before it evaporates.

SGRO – Profit Taking
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560

SGRO, together with other CPO stocks, was down 80 points (-4.7%) yesterday to 1620. This closing price in our opinion is still in our support-resistance range. We have two possibilities why SGRO showed weakness yesterday. First, it was just a profit taking. Second, it shows market opinion of what CPO prices is going to be. The swine flu we think will have an influence on market perception of commodities prices. However, we still put this stock on our top picks.

AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600

From all the CPO stocks that were down yesterday, only AALI that booked the least price correction. Yesterday, AALI only corrected -0.9% while its peers down 5% on average. Technically, we see a correction. Also we see a strong support on 1630 level. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI.

ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880

ADRO has cross above its 1000 level resistance. One of the main reason is its shareholders plan to sell their stake at ADRO around Rp 1200/share. In the coming days we would still see investors speculate on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1567-1617

First session laughing but crying at second session. That’s what happen last Friday which JCI move strong to its highest at 1609, yet profit taking showed up on second session which drove JCI to its lowest 1576. However, JCI finally closed at 1591, down 1.36 points. IDX trading value last Friday up 15.6% comparing to the day before, as much as Rp 2.9 trillion. Bakrie’s stocks move in positive territory except for BNBR. But the most winners were CPO related stocks like AALI, LSIP, SGRO.

Last week DJIA was down 0,70% which open on Monday (20/4) at 8128 and closed on Friday (24/4) at 8070. Meanwhile, JCI for the same week down about 2.63% (open at 1634 & closed at 1591). While at US market the main forces are corporate quarterly result and banking concern, in Indonesia market the main force is the political stability. The ‘divorce’ between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar concern investors.

Today we expect to see JCI range in a positive territory with a 1567-1617 range. Mark Mobius of Templeton Asset Management comment about Thailand market as undervalued and its political issue is not so great would become a positive drive for regional and hopefully our market. Our top picks for today are INDF, KLBF, SGRO, AALI, ADRO


Today’s Top Picks

INDF – Buy
Target Price :1290 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1160

Last Friday INDF closed strong, up 50 points (+4.2%) at 1250. This has reach our previous target price 1230. Strong CPO price we think boost INDF price moving up to its 1290 resistance. We still a short-term up trend ahead. We set our next target price at 1290 and up grade our support to 1160.


KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :810 Resistance : 810
Cut Loss :610 Support : 750

KLBF closed at 800 up 30 points. This closing near our target price 810. We still see an up trend for KLBF. However, it has moved up near its resistance. So we expect there should be profit taking. But for mid-term horizon trading, we still recommend to accumulate KLBF.


SGRO – Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560

Together with other CPO stocks, SGRO last Friday closed strong, up 6.3% to 1700. We see SGRO has broken up its consolidation phase and try to move upward. We see 1560 as support. We still bullish on SGRO because of strong CPO price. Correction we should expect, yet this one is still on the way up. Buy SGRO for short or mid-term horizon.


AALI - Buy
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600

Together with other CPO stocks, AALI last Friday closed up 5.3% at 15850. For today trading we still recommend AALI for both fundamentally & technically point of view. From fundamental, CPO price that keep moving up since Oct’08 gives good reason for buying AALI. From technical there’re several points. (1) AALI chart move in line with CPO chart; (2) AALI chart shows patterns that easily mark. Everytime price touch MA20 most likely the price going up. And if we look at Stochastic it’s in oversold area. With strong volume last week, we still bullish on AALI


ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO was proven cannot break its resistance at 1000 last week. After reaching high 1050 ADRO corrected into 1000. If we look at ADRO technical chart, this pattern is recognized very familiar. We still see an up trend movement for ADRO. Our trading target price still 1200. We believe ADRO will again try to break its resistance 1000.

Daily Review April 24, 2009

Market Overview

Today’s Range : 1576-1623

Suspended on a technical glitch. Last trade reading from IDX was 14:26:51 BUMI 1200 (-30).That’s what happened yesterday. According to news quoted by Bloomberg, IDX was suspended because of a technical glitch. JCI was suspended at 1592, down 22.53 point (-1.39%). Another bad day for Bakrie stocks. BUMI down 2.44%, BNBR -19.18%, ELTY -8%.

DJIA closed at 7957,06 up 70,49 points (++0,9%) due to better than expected result from two financial institutuions; PNC Financial Services Group Inc. & First Third Bancorp. From automotive industry, General Motors would temporarily shut down 13 plants in North America while the Treasury Deparment is preparing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy for Chrysler. March existing home sales down 2.97% to 4.57 million.

Today’s JCI range would be 1576-1623. Positve view is that CPO price up 6.7%; should be good for CPO stocks. Negative view is political differences between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar; will be discouraging for our market. For today’s top picks we put three new stocks (KLBF, APOL & AALI) for speculative trading. Though we drop SGRO & JSMR, we still recommend those two for mid-trading horizon. For PGAS, we put on hold on that because yesterday trade it still can’t break up 2450 resistance that we mentioned two days ago. Therefore we expect PGAS will be corrected moving to its support. Today’s picks are KLBF, APOL, INDF, ADRO & AALI.


Today’s Top Picks


INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020

Yesterday it is proven that INDF closed in a positive trade. We still see 1020 support level is a crucial one. If we look at the trend, INDF is on the way up. Anyhow, yesterday low volume makes us a bit worry. Maybe it just because IDX is suspended after lunch. Our trading target at 1230.


KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :810 Resistance : 810
Cut Loss :610 Support : 750

Since last week KLBF has showed movement trying to break strong resistance 750. Yesterday that level has been crossed & now become support. We put KLBF as our new trading idea in notion that this stock used for speculative trading. Our target would be 810, which has been touched four times (3 times on July’08 & 1 time on yesterday’s highest).


APOL – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 340 Resistance : 340
Cut Loss : 215 Support : 280

Another of our speculative stock pick. APOL has moved up in the last two days with higher than usual volume. Yesterday it was closed up 1.8% to 285. News that APOL has sign a new contract of $60 millions serve as fundamental basis for this movement. From technical view, we see APOL has cross above its resistance 280. Our next resistance target would be 340, which we also recommend as short term target price. However, this one is for speculative mode.


AALI - Buy
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600

One of the blue chip we love. AALI is terrific both fundamentally & technically point of view. From fundamental, CPO price that keep moving up since Oct’08 gives good reason for buying AALI. From technical there’re several points. (1) AALI chart move in line with CPO chart; (2) AALI chart shows patterns that easily mark. Everytime price touch MA20 most likely the price going up. And if we look at Stochastic it’s in oversold area. But the decreasing volume was not so impressing.


ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880

ADRO is one of few stocks that closed possitive yesterday. ADRO closed at 1010, gain 4.1%. We think news about Tata & Marubeni interesting in ADRO still a drive. Yesterday ADRO has cross our resistance at 1000. Yet we still should see whether this cross above will last. Need one or two days to prove it. However, our next resistance would be 1240.

Market Overview 23 April'09

Technical View

Today’s Range : 1639-1676


Another Bakrie-related stocks day. But yesterday was different. It was Bakrie-related stocks that dragged down JCI into negative territory. On the second session, investors dumped several Bakrie stocks. Coincidently, this happened as political news being released about Golkar and Partai Demokrat. BUMI was closed down 15.17%, BNBR -19.78%, ENRG -20.93%. Transaction value yesterday Rp 5.46 trillion, down 14.9% from the previous day.

DJIA was riding a bumpy ride last night. Hovering between positive & negative territory, finally DJIA closed in red at 7886 (-1.04%). Mixing earnings from two banks drove bank share volatile. Wells Fargo reported higher than expected quarterly result while Morgan Stanley earnings missed Wall Street forecasts. Earnings from McDonald & AT&T gave investors a glimmer of hope that consumer spending is improving.

A positive open in regional market this morning at 7:36 WIB (Nikkei +0.4%, KOSPI +0.27%, KLCI +0.2%) gives a glimmer optimist to our beloved JCI. We forecast today’s range would be 1639-1676. However, political perspective between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar will have an impact to our market. CPO price jump 4% last night and we think will have a positive impact to CPO-related stock. Our top picks for today are INDF, PGAS, SGRO, JSMR, ADRO.


Today’s Top Picks

INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020

After move up 11% on Monday, yesterday INDF corrected 1.7% (-20 point). We still recommend to trade INDF. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.


PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225

PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.


SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560

Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. Last night CPO price up 4% to $715,50 & we think that was good news for SGRO. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830.


JSMR - Buy
Target Price : 1330 Resistance : 1210
Cut Loss : 830 Support : 1100

JSMR is one of our top picks. It has good business prospect. Fundamentally, for the last three years its revenue up 15.4% while net income up 17.67%. Also, JSMR has a good ROE at 10.77%. We really like JSMR business model. From technical side, buying signal has appeared since second of April. Since that day stock price rise gradually. We see there’s a strong resistance at 1210. Yesterday spike indicate JSMR is a good pick for mid-term investment.


ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880

News released by Kontan Daily that Marubeni & Tata interested in buying ADRO shares, boost ADRO price in the first session with high volume. We think investors speculate about this news. Kontan mentioned the strike price would be around Rp 1100. Should that news wasn’t true, we still recommend ADRO for mid to long term investing horizon. Technically, ADRO stock price is on the bullish mode with strong resistance at 1100. We investors should be very patience about ADRO since its price movement is not as volatile as BUMI.


DISCLAIMER ON. The following above is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks. Those are for my personal benefit only.

Daily Review Apr09 22

MARKET REVIEW

Retracement or end of bull. Yesterday closing in negative teritory makes us a bit worry. Was yesterday just a pull back or the end of bull. One of the technical stuff we could use is Fibonacci retracement. Using lowest 1244 (3/3) and highest 1661 (20/4) we find a 23.6% retracement at 1563 & a 38.2% at 1502. So in a few days ahead we’ll test JCI whether it cross below 1563 and 1502. Should that happens, then we should be worry. Untill then, just sit tight and make a lot of money.


TECHNICAL VIEW

Today’s Range : 1622-1672

Finally after six days JCI closing positive, yersterday it was closed in negative teritory. Since the opening market showed weakness due to regional and profit taking. Several Bakrie stocks that has been driving JCI for the last couple of days closed at red. BUMI closed -2.03% at 1450 while BNBR -6.19% (91). The only Bakrie stock that showed a possitive return is ENRG which +33.5% at 215.

After opening in negative area, DJIA start to climbed up to positive teritory in mid day, closing at 7969 (+1.63%). The broader index S&P 500 also closed +2.13% while Nasdaq +2.22%. Comments from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the vast majority of banks have enough capital boosted banking shares, which in return drove DJIA & S&P 500 into positive closing.

Massive selling on BUMI & BNBR near the closing bell yesterday makes us a bit worry about the sustainability of the rally. Prudent investors should lock up their profit. But what happens last night at US market gives us a little hope that this rally at least will survive another day. Today JCI range is 1622-1672. Our picks for today are INDF (TP 1230), PGAS (TP 2600), SGRO (TP 1830), UNSP (TP 1750), BUMI (TP 2175).


Today’s Top Picks

INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020

Yesterday INDF was closed up 11.1% at 1200. What makes it interesting is the volume spike. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.


PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225

PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.

SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560

Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830. But investors must have a little patience on SGRO since it moves not as volatile as UNSP; which is our next top pick.


UNSP - Buy
Target Price : 1750 Resistance : 1750
Cut Loss : 1040 Support : 1250

October 6, 2008 was the most memorable day for UNSP. That was the last trading day before Bakrie-related stocks were suspended by IDX. On that day UNSP was closed at 460. But hola, yesterday UNSP closed at 540, surpased the before suspended price level. Considering the trading volume we see a strong up side movement for UNSP. I think there is nothing wrong fundamentally with UNSP, only negative sentiment toward Bakrie’s name that pushed this stock down. Yet we must warn that this stock is very volatile and the risk implied is more than its peer. Investors should have a strong trading plan before jump into this stock.


BUMI - Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :670 Support : 1150

Riding with risk it is when we trade this stock. Yesterday we BUMI closed down 2% at 1450. We still see this is a healty correction. If we talk candle stick pattern, we saw doji yesterday. Supposedly that is not a good sign. So for today we should expect a correction. But hey, you’ll never know what’s going to happen with BUMI. Yet we’re very positive about this stock. Besides, BUMI has reached yet its last price level before being suspended last year. At that time, BUMI closed at 2175.


DISCLAIMER ON. The following is not a stock recommendation. Only used for my personal trading.