Daily Review Apr09 22

MARKET REVIEW

Retracement or end of bull. Yesterday closing in negative teritory makes us a bit worry. Was yesterday just a pull back or the end of bull. One of the technical stuff we could use is Fibonacci retracement. Using lowest 1244 (3/3) and highest 1661 (20/4) we find a 23.6% retracement at 1563 & a 38.2% at 1502. So in a few days ahead we’ll test JCI whether it cross below 1563 and 1502. Should that happens, then we should be worry. Untill then, just sit tight and make a lot of money.


TECHNICAL VIEW

Today’s Range : 1622-1672

Finally after six days JCI closing positive, yersterday it was closed in negative teritory. Since the opening market showed weakness due to regional and profit taking. Several Bakrie stocks that has been driving JCI for the last couple of days closed at red. BUMI closed -2.03% at 1450 while BNBR -6.19% (91). The only Bakrie stock that showed a possitive return is ENRG which +33.5% at 215.

After opening in negative area, DJIA start to climbed up to positive teritory in mid day, closing at 7969 (+1.63%). The broader index S&P 500 also closed +2.13% while Nasdaq +2.22%. Comments from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the vast majority of banks have enough capital boosted banking shares, which in return drove DJIA & S&P 500 into positive closing.

Massive selling on BUMI & BNBR near the closing bell yesterday makes us a bit worry about the sustainability of the rally. Prudent investors should lock up their profit. But what happens last night at US market gives us a little hope that this rally at least will survive another day. Today JCI range is 1622-1672. Our picks for today are INDF (TP 1230), PGAS (TP 2600), SGRO (TP 1830), UNSP (TP 1750), BUMI (TP 2175).


Today’s Top Picks

INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020

Yesterday INDF was closed up 11.1% at 1200. What makes it interesting is the volume spike. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.


PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225

PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.

SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560

Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830. But investors must have a little patience on SGRO since it moves not as volatile as UNSP; which is our next top pick.


UNSP - Buy
Target Price : 1750 Resistance : 1750
Cut Loss : 1040 Support : 1250

October 6, 2008 was the most memorable day for UNSP. That was the last trading day before Bakrie-related stocks were suspended by IDX. On that day UNSP was closed at 460. But hola, yesterday UNSP closed at 540, surpased the before suspended price level. Considering the trading volume we see a strong up side movement for UNSP. I think there is nothing wrong fundamentally with UNSP, only negative sentiment toward Bakrie’s name that pushed this stock down. Yet we must warn that this stock is very volatile and the risk implied is more than its peer. Investors should have a strong trading plan before jump into this stock.


BUMI - Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :670 Support : 1150

Riding with risk it is when we trade this stock. Yesterday we BUMI closed down 2% at 1450. We still see this is a healty correction. If we talk candle stick pattern, we saw doji yesterday. Supposedly that is not a good sign. So for today we should expect a correction. But hey, you’ll never know what’s going to happen with BUMI. Yet we’re very positive about this stock. Besides, BUMI has reached yet its last price level before being suspended last year. At that time, BUMI closed at 2175.


DISCLAIMER ON. The following is not a stock recommendation. Only used for my personal trading.