Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1647-1767
A WOW factor. That’s what I called of what happened yesterday. JCI gains +4.78% (+78,58) to 1722 lead by banking, mining & infrastructure stocks. Not only it’s been driven by blue chips, JCI’s transaction value has gone back to Rp 5.8 trillion again, up 86% from the day before. In term of volume, trading was up 179%. Movement in the second session, especially near the end of trading time, show a very strong spike. This kind of chart should mean nothing but optimism. What’s suprising was PGAS. After mostly un-moved during the first session, it boosted up exactly at 2:36 PM & finally closed at 2600 (+10,6%). Nickels-related stocks like ANTM & INCO also surge quite big due to strong nickel price. And don’t forget about banking (BBRI, BDMN, BMRI) which up more than 6%. Only BBCA that lagging yesterday.
DJIA was open quite strong but news Chrysler has begun bankruptcy proceedings dragged Dow down 17.61 points (-0.22%) to 8168.12. Weekly jobless claims fell to 631,000 last week while personal income down -0.3% & personal spending -0.2%, which is worst than February data.
INVEST! That’s our mode right now. Since JCI keep closing above its MA200, we see an up-trend ahead. Jump into blue chips especially banking, commodities & mining. Today’s JCI range should be 1647-1767. Optimism is still on the air but be aware of profit taking; especially of what happen on Wall Street last night. For today our picks are TLKM, UNTR, ASII, PTBA.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900
Cut Loss :6250
Resistance : 7900
Support : 7000
Blue chips is on the chase. Three days ago TLKM rose +4.9%, two days ago still up +2%. And finally yesterday another gain of +2%, in which TLKM closed at 7850. It’s very near our short term target. Technically, 7900 level is a triple tops pattern. So if today’s trading TLKM could break up 7900, we’re very very bullish on TLKM. Should this happens, we raise our target on TLKM to 8750. Otherwise, it should retrace to its 7000 support level.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750
Cut Loss :7200
Resistance : 9000
Support : 7100
Incredible. UNTR yesterday gain 13% (+1050 points) to 9000. Result of 1Q09 profit that jump 57% to Rp 812 billion boost UNTR price yesterday with a very high volume. Being closed at 9000, UNTR has broken up its 8100 resistance level. Our next resistance level would be 9000. We still recommend investors to trade on UNTR with our target price 9750.
ASII – Buy
Target Price : 21100
Cut Loss : 14400
Resistance : 21100
Support : 16000
Another Astra-related stock that posted a massive gains. ASII rose +14% yesterday closed at 18000. This level not only has reached our target price 17800 but also break up its strong resistance 16000. We’re still bullish on ASII. Therefore we’re up grade our target price and resistance to 21100 & support level to 16000. However, we should expect a pull back below 16000 level because we still have to test whether this new support could hold on. Stil buy on ASII.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 10500
Cut Loss : 7600
Resistance : 10500
Support : 8350
Another stock that try to break up its resistance. PTBA yesterday closed at 9100 (+4.55%) break up a bit its 9000 resistance. Since first week of April PTBA was not succeed in breaking this level. However, yesterday we saw a strong volume for PTBA. We’re bullish on PTBA for short term trading. Our target would be 10500.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price :2950
Cut Loss :2075
Resistance : 2950
Support : 2225
After mostly un-moved during the first session, PGAS boosted up exactly at 2:36 PM & finally closed at 2600 (+10,6%). Being closed at 2600 PGAS has broken up its strong resistance 2500, not mentioning has violated our short term target of 2500. Our next target would be 2950, which is our next resistance also. We are bullish on PGAS for long-term holding (2009-10 horizon).
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Daily Review April 30, 2009
Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1580-1662
Back into blue chips. Again JCI gain 3.02% on yesterday closed at 1644 (+48.27%). We see a very strong movement near the closing time which volume jumped. Optimism in emerging market was one of the main driver. Regional index also closed up around 2%. MSCI Asia Pacific (excl. Japan) rose 2.3%. We really like yesterday strong market because it was driven by blue chip. Stocks like UNTR, BBNI, PTBA, ASII, BDMN & TLKM were booked in the top ten by value.
US market was spectacular last night. DJIA posted gain +2.11% to 8185.78 while Nasdaq closed at 1711.94 up +2.28%. Statements from the Fed that the recession has started to ease gave investors confidence. Also the Fed at FOMC last night kept their rate steady at 0.00%-0.25%. Despiste US 1Q08 GDP data which shows contraction -6.1%, investors chose to ignore negative news. They prefer to listen to the positive one such as Consumer Confidence that rose to 39.2.
We’re a bit more cheerful than yesterday in our market review. Strong movement from blue chips is an indicator we like so much. Then optimism on Wall Street last night confirm our notion for today. Commodities & metal prices up on average 2%-4% amid optimism that the recession is on the bottom right now. For today’s range JCI will be 1580-1662. We cast out our second liners picks and move to blue chips. Watch for commodities, metals & infrastructures stocks. We recommend a buy on TLKM, UNTR, ASII, PTBA & PGAS.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000
After rose +4.9% two days ago, yesterday again TLKM up +2.7%. We belive TLKM result still effect investors to persue this blue chip. We have several reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We still recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 8100
Cut Loss :6350 Support : 7100
Result of 1Q09 profit that jump 57% to Rp 812 billion boost UNTR price yesterday with a very high volume. UNTR closed at 7950, up 550 points (+7.38%). We recommend investors to trade on UNTR with our target price 9750. However, we see a resistance at 8100. So once the price moving up near this level, we should expect a correction. However if the market is very strong, we believe that resistance will be pass above easily.
ASII – Buy
Target Price : 17800 Resistance : 16000
Cut Loss : 12600 Support : 14450
ASII is moving up near its strong resistance at 16000. This resistance has been in existance for almost a month. We would see whether today’s trading ASII is able to break up that level. High volume trading of yesterday makes us confidence in ASII for short term trading. Our target price would be 17800. However, if ASII fail its resistance, it should be moving back toward support 14450.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 10500 Resistance : 9000
Cut Loss : 7250 Support : 8350
Another stock that try to break up its resistance. PTBA yesterday closed at 9100 (+4.55%) break up a bit its 9000 resistance. Since first week of April PTBA was not succeed in breaking this level. However, yesterday we saw a strong volume for PTBA. We’re bullish on PTBA for short term trading. Our target would be 10500.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price :2500 Resistance : 2500
Cut Loss :1875 Support : 2225
For two days trading PGAS has been up. Technically we see PGAS try to move toward its resistance at 2500, which in our opinion is a strong resistance & serve as our short term target. But for long-term holding (2009-10 horizon), we are very bullish on PGAS. But we are concern about its decrasing volume. In this case, our recommendation would be buy for mid to long term holding. Should our target 2500 being reached, our next target would be 2950.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Today’s Range : 1580-1662
Back into blue chips. Again JCI gain 3.02% on yesterday closed at 1644 (+48.27%). We see a very strong movement near the closing time which volume jumped. Optimism in emerging market was one of the main driver. Regional index also closed up around 2%. MSCI Asia Pacific (excl. Japan) rose 2.3%. We really like yesterday strong market because it was driven by blue chip. Stocks like UNTR, BBNI, PTBA, ASII, BDMN & TLKM were booked in the top ten by value.
US market was spectacular last night. DJIA posted gain +2.11% to 8185.78 while Nasdaq closed at 1711.94 up +2.28%. Statements from the Fed that the recession has started to ease gave investors confidence. Also the Fed at FOMC last night kept their rate steady at 0.00%-0.25%. Despiste US 1Q08 GDP data which shows contraction -6.1%, investors chose to ignore negative news. They prefer to listen to the positive one such as Consumer Confidence that rose to 39.2.
We’re a bit more cheerful than yesterday in our market review. Strong movement from blue chips is an indicator we like so much. Then optimism on Wall Street last night confirm our notion for today. Commodities & metal prices up on average 2%-4% amid optimism that the recession is on the bottom right now. For today’s range JCI will be 1580-1662. We cast out our second liners picks and move to blue chips. Watch for commodities, metals & infrastructures stocks. We recommend a buy on TLKM, UNTR, ASII, PTBA & PGAS.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000
After rose +4.9% two days ago, yesterday again TLKM up +2.7%. We belive TLKM result still effect investors to persue this blue chip. We have several reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We still recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 8100
Cut Loss :6350 Support : 7100
Result of 1Q09 profit that jump 57% to Rp 812 billion boost UNTR price yesterday with a very high volume. UNTR closed at 7950, up 550 points (+7.38%). We recommend investors to trade on UNTR with our target price 9750. However, we see a resistance at 8100. So once the price moving up near this level, we should expect a correction. However if the market is very strong, we believe that resistance will be pass above easily.
ASII – Buy
Target Price : 17800 Resistance : 16000
Cut Loss : 12600 Support : 14450
ASII is moving up near its strong resistance at 16000. This resistance has been in existance for almost a month. We would see whether today’s trading ASII is able to break up that level. High volume trading of yesterday makes us confidence in ASII for short term trading. Our target price would be 17800. However, if ASII fail its resistance, it should be moving back toward support 14450.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 10500 Resistance : 9000
Cut Loss : 7250 Support : 8350
Another stock that try to break up its resistance. PTBA yesterday closed at 9100 (+4.55%) break up a bit its 9000 resistance. Since first week of April PTBA was not succeed in breaking this level. However, yesterday we saw a strong volume for PTBA. We’re bullish on PTBA for short term trading. Our target would be 10500.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price :2500 Resistance : 2500
Cut Loss :1875 Support : 2225
For two days trading PGAS has been up. Technically we see PGAS try to move toward its resistance at 2500, which in our opinion is a strong resistance & serve as our short term target. But for long-term holding (2009-10 horizon), we are very bullish on PGAS. But we are concern about its decrasing volume. In this case, our recommendation would be buy for mid to long term holding. Should our target 2500 being reached, our next target would be 2950.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Daily Review April 29, 2009
Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1564-1629
Quite amazing JCI yesterday. While regional bourses closed mostly down amid the swine flu, JCI has managed to close up 1.26% (+19.83 points) to 1595. The main drivers besides Bakrie related stocks was TLKM which 4.9% due to better-than-expected result for FY08. Yet, instead of being joyful, we are afraid of what happened to JCI was a pumping-the-market scenario. Because technically, we’re seeing a down trend for JCI since April 21; in which JCI has cross below its MA200.
The fear of the swine flu becomes a pandemic, which in turn will have a negative impact to the already declining economy, and the worry about the health of US banks put US markets down last night. DJIA closed down a bit to 8016 (-0.10%) while Nasdaq down 0.33% to 1673. Reports that Bank of America & Citigroup still need more capital added more tension to Wall Street. The bright sight is the Consumer Confidence Index in April rose to 39.2 from 26.9 in March.
Today we expect JCI range would be 1564-1629 with the possibility of profit taking. We’re strongly advice our investors to be more conservative; take profit & don’t be too aggressive, focus on blue chip, and hold a cash reserve. In our top picks we’re already suggested to take some profit for several stocks we’ve recommended earlier. Take profit on KLBF, AALI. Hold on SGRO, ADRO. And our new pick is TLKM on buy.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000
Yesterday TLKM closed up 350 points (+4.9%) to 7450. We believe TLKM was one of the driver that keep JCI in positive territory. We have xx reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.
KLBF – Profit Taking
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860
We predict KLBF will surge amid positive sentiment on pharmaceutical stocks but it lost its power. Yesterday KLBF closed at previous level 870 while its peer (KAEF, INAF) up 6%. For the moment we think this is just because investors that has jumped in earlier took their profit. However, we recommend our investors to be conservative on KLBF. Don’t speculate too much on it. Yes technically we see a strong movement; but we don’t know when it ends.
SGRO – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Despite weakness in CPO price, SGRO yesterday managed to book a 1.2% gain; closed at 1640 SGRO up 20 points. We still see SGRO move between its support-resistance trading range. We recommend our investors to hold a mid to long term view on SGRO because we see this stock has a strong fundamental and technically in upward trend. Having said that, se still recommend SGRO.
AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
Not so strong movement it was on AALI yesterday. It corrected 200 points (-1.3%) to 1550. Correction on CPO price we suspect to be the main driver for AALI. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI. Watch everytime AALI price touched or cross below a bit its MA20, it usually a buying point signal.
ADRO – Profit Taking
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
News released by InvestorDaily about ADRO’s former shareholder put a little burden on ADRO price yesterday; in which down 20 points to 1000. This level is our resistance level. We’re not sure how this news will impact ADRO fundamentally, and from yesterday trading we think we haven’t seen the market capitalized the news. Therefore we take a little cautious on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal purpose only.
Today’s Range : 1564-1629
Quite amazing JCI yesterday. While regional bourses closed mostly down amid the swine flu, JCI has managed to close up 1.26% (+19.83 points) to 1595. The main drivers besides Bakrie related stocks was TLKM which 4.9% due to better-than-expected result for FY08. Yet, instead of being joyful, we are afraid of what happened to JCI was a pumping-the-market scenario. Because technically, we’re seeing a down trend for JCI since April 21; in which JCI has cross below its MA200.
The fear of the swine flu becomes a pandemic, which in turn will have a negative impact to the already declining economy, and the worry about the health of US banks put US markets down last night. DJIA closed down a bit to 8016 (-0.10%) while Nasdaq down 0.33% to 1673. Reports that Bank of America & Citigroup still need more capital added more tension to Wall Street. The bright sight is the Consumer Confidence Index in April rose to 39.2 from 26.9 in March.
Today we expect JCI range would be 1564-1629 with the possibility of profit taking. We’re strongly advice our investors to be more conservative; take profit & don’t be too aggressive, focus on blue chip, and hold a cash reserve. In our top picks we’re already suggested to take some profit for several stocks we’ve recommended earlier. Take profit on KLBF, AALI. Hold on SGRO, ADRO. And our new pick is TLKM on buy.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000
Yesterday TLKM closed up 350 points (+4.9%) to 7450. We believe TLKM was one of the driver that keep JCI in positive territory. We have xx reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.
KLBF – Profit Taking
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860
We predict KLBF will surge amid positive sentiment on pharmaceutical stocks but it lost its power. Yesterday KLBF closed at previous level 870 while its peer (KAEF, INAF) up 6%. For the moment we think this is just because investors that has jumped in earlier took their profit. However, we recommend our investors to be conservative on KLBF. Don’t speculate too much on it. Yes technically we see a strong movement; but we don’t know when it ends.
SGRO – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Despite weakness in CPO price, SGRO yesterday managed to book a 1.2% gain; closed at 1640 SGRO up 20 points. We still see SGRO move between its support-resistance trading range. We recommend our investors to hold a mid to long term view on SGRO because we see this stock has a strong fundamental and technically in upward trend. Having said that, se still recommend SGRO.
AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
Not so strong movement it was on AALI yesterday. It corrected 200 points (-1.3%) to 1550. Correction on CPO price we suspect to be the main driver for AALI. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI. Watch everytime AALI price touched or cross below a bit its MA20, it usually a buying point signal.
ADRO – Profit Taking
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
News released by InvestorDaily about ADRO’s former shareholder put a little burden on ADRO price yesterday; in which down 20 points to 1000. This level is our resistance level. We’re not sure how this news will impact ADRO fundamentally, and from yesterday trading we think we haven’t seen the market capitalized the news. Therefore we take a little cautious on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal purpose only.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Daily Review April 28, 2009
Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1567-1604
JCI yesterday closed in red, down 15.25 points (-0.96%) to 1576.08. That was five days in a row JCI closed down. Regional market also closed weak yesterday because the fear of the swine flu will slow the global economy recovery. CPO stocks mostly down led by UNSP -5.6%, LSIP -5.1% & SGRO -4.7%. Only AALI which showed a little downside which only -0.9%.
The fear of swine flu has finally been capitalized on Wall Street. Last night DJIA closed at 8025 down 51.29 points (-0.64%) while Nasdaq closed at 1679 down 14.88 points (-0,88%). Also the fear that the flu will have the same or worse impact such as SARS and will effect the economic recovery has pushed down commodities and metals prices. Oil, CPO, nicke, tin prices down on average of 1.4% to 2%.
Concerning all that happens last night amid the swine flu and the weak prices of metals & commodities, we expect JCI will be in negative territory today. Our range would be 1567-1604. Our second support would be 1559 & the third support on 1535. Be cautious on commodities & metals stocks but be watching pharmaceutical stocks. For today’s trading we pick AALI, SGRO, ADRO, INDF & KLBF. Some for profit taking & some for new positions.
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Profit Taking
Target Price :1290 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1160
Yesterday INDF closed down 30 points to 1220. This level is a bit below of our previous target price (1230). We see yesterday trading just a correction, influenced by profit taking in CPO stocks. But we suggest our investors to take profit for CPO related stocks since we are a bit concern about this swine flu will affect commodities price. Still we put a buy recommendation on INDF with 1290 target price.
KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860
Up 70 points to 870 yesterday KLBF has reached our 810 target price. However we still see a short term up trend for KLBF. Hence we up grade our trading target price to 920 and our support to 860. We still see a strong market movement on KLBF. But investors has to be very aware about KLBF price movement. Once it shows a weakness then we urge to take profit before it evaporates.
SGRO – Profit Taking
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
SGRO, together with other CPO stocks, was down 80 points (-4.7%) yesterday to 1620. This closing price in our opinion is still in our support-resistance range. We have two possibilities why SGRO showed weakness yesterday. First, it was just a profit taking. Second, it shows market opinion of what CPO prices is going to be. The swine flu we think will have an influence on market perception of commodities prices. However, we still put this stock on our top picks.
AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
From all the CPO stocks that were down yesterday, only AALI that booked the least price correction. Yesterday, AALI only corrected -0.9% while its peers down 5% on average. Technically, we see a correction. Also we see a strong support on 1630 level. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI.
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO has cross above its 1000 level resistance. One of the main reason is its shareholders plan to sell their stake at ADRO around Rp 1200/share. In the coming days we would still see investors speculate on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.
Today’s Range : 1567-1604
JCI yesterday closed in red, down 15.25 points (-0.96%) to 1576.08. That was five days in a row JCI closed down. Regional market also closed weak yesterday because the fear of the swine flu will slow the global economy recovery. CPO stocks mostly down led by UNSP -5.6%, LSIP -5.1% & SGRO -4.7%. Only AALI which showed a little downside which only -0.9%.
The fear of swine flu has finally been capitalized on Wall Street. Last night DJIA closed at 8025 down 51.29 points (-0.64%) while Nasdaq closed at 1679 down 14.88 points (-0,88%). Also the fear that the flu will have the same or worse impact such as SARS and will effect the economic recovery has pushed down commodities and metals prices. Oil, CPO, nicke, tin prices down on average of 1.4% to 2%.
Concerning all that happens last night amid the swine flu and the weak prices of metals & commodities, we expect JCI will be in negative territory today. Our range would be 1567-1604. Our second support would be 1559 & the third support on 1535. Be cautious on commodities & metals stocks but be watching pharmaceutical stocks. For today’s trading we pick AALI, SGRO, ADRO, INDF & KLBF. Some for profit taking & some for new positions.
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Profit Taking
Target Price :1290 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1160
Yesterday INDF closed down 30 points to 1220. This level is a bit below of our previous target price (1230). We see yesterday trading just a correction, influenced by profit taking in CPO stocks. But we suggest our investors to take profit for CPO related stocks since we are a bit concern about this swine flu will affect commodities price. Still we put a buy recommendation on INDF with 1290 target price.
KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860
Up 70 points to 870 yesterday KLBF has reached our 810 target price. However we still see a short term up trend for KLBF. Hence we up grade our trading target price to 920 and our support to 860. We still see a strong market movement on KLBF. But investors has to be very aware about KLBF price movement. Once it shows a weakness then we urge to take profit before it evaporates.
SGRO – Profit Taking
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
SGRO, together with other CPO stocks, was down 80 points (-4.7%) yesterday to 1620. This closing price in our opinion is still in our support-resistance range. We have two possibilities why SGRO showed weakness yesterday. First, it was just a profit taking. Second, it shows market opinion of what CPO prices is going to be. The swine flu we think will have an influence on market perception of commodities prices. However, we still put this stock on our top picks.
AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
From all the CPO stocks that were down yesterday, only AALI that booked the least price correction. Yesterday, AALI only corrected -0.9% while its peers down 5% on average. Technically, we see a correction. Also we see a strong support on 1630 level. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI.
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO has cross above its 1000 level resistance. One of the main reason is its shareholders plan to sell their stake at ADRO around Rp 1200/share. In the coming days we would still see investors speculate on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.
Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1567-1617
First session laughing but crying at second session. That’s what happen last Friday which JCI move strong to its highest at 1609, yet profit taking showed up on second session which drove JCI to its lowest 1576. However, JCI finally closed at 1591, down 1.36 points. IDX trading value last Friday up 15.6% comparing to the day before, as much as Rp 2.9 trillion. Bakrie’s stocks move in positive territory except for BNBR. But the most winners were CPO related stocks like AALI, LSIP, SGRO.
Last week DJIA was down 0,70% which open on Monday (20/4) at 8128 and closed on Friday (24/4) at 8070. Meanwhile, JCI for the same week down about 2.63% (open at 1634 & closed at 1591). While at US market the main forces are corporate quarterly result and banking concern, in Indonesia market the main force is the political stability. The ‘divorce’ between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar concern investors.
Today we expect to see JCI range in a positive territory with a 1567-1617 range. Mark Mobius of Templeton Asset Management comment about Thailand market as undervalued and its political issue is not so great would become a positive drive for regional and hopefully our market. Our top picks for today are INDF, KLBF, SGRO, AALI, ADRO
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1290 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1160
Last Friday INDF closed strong, up 50 points (+4.2%) at 1250. This has reach our previous target price 1230. Strong CPO price we think boost INDF price moving up to its 1290 resistance. We still a short-term up trend ahead. We set our next target price at 1290 and up grade our support to 1160.
KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :810 Resistance : 810
Cut Loss :610 Support : 750
KLBF closed at 800 up 30 points. This closing near our target price 810. We still see an up trend for KLBF. However, it has moved up near its resistance. So we expect there should be profit taking. But for mid-term horizon trading, we still recommend to accumulate KLBF.
SGRO – Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Together with other CPO stocks, SGRO last Friday closed strong, up 6.3% to 1700. We see SGRO has broken up its consolidation phase and try to move upward. We see 1560 as support. We still bullish on SGRO because of strong CPO price. Correction we should expect, yet this one is still on the way up. Buy SGRO for short or mid-term horizon.
AALI - Buy
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
Together with other CPO stocks, AALI last Friday closed up 5.3% at 15850. For today trading we still recommend AALI for both fundamentally & technically point of view. From fundamental, CPO price that keep moving up since Oct’08 gives good reason for buying AALI. From technical there’re several points. (1) AALI chart move in line with CPO chart; (2) AALI chart shows patterns that easily mark. Everytime price touch MA20 most likely the price going up. And if we look at Stochastic it’s in oversold area. With strong volume last week, we still bullish on AALI
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO was proven cannot break its resistance at 1000 last week. After reaching high 1050 ADRO corrected into 1000. If we look at ADRO technical chart, this pattern is recognized very familiar. We still see an up trend movement for ADRO. Our trading target price still 1200. We believe ADRO will again try to break its resistance 1000.
Today’s Range : 1567-1617
First session laughing but crying at second session. That’s what happen last Friday which JCI move strong to its highest at 1609, yet profit taking showed up on second session which drove JCI to its lowest 1576. However, JCI finally closed at 1591, down 1.36 points. IDX trading value last Friday up 15.6% comparing to the day before, as much as Rp 2.9 trillion. Bakrie’s stocks move in positive territory except for BNBR. But the most winners were CPO related stocks like AALI, LSIP, SGRO.
Last week DJIA was down 0,70% which open on Monday (20/4) at 8128 and closed on Friday (24/4) at 8070. Meanwhile, JCI for the same week down about 2.63% (open at 1634 & closed at 1591). While at US market the main forces are corporate quarterly result and banking concern, in Indonesia market the main force is the political stability. The ‘divorce’ between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar concern investors.
Today we expect to see JCI range in a positive territory with a 1567-1617 range. Mark Mobius of Templeton Asset Management comment about Thailand market as undervalued and its political issue is not so great would become a positive drive for regional and hopefully our market. Our top picks for today are INDF, KLBF, SGRO, AALI, ADRO
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1290 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1160
Last Friday INDF closed strong, up 50 points (+4.2%) at 1250. This has reach our previous target price 1230. Strong CPO price we think boost INDF price moving up to its 1290 resistance. We still a short-term up trend ahead. We set our next target price at 1290 and up grade our support to 1160.
KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :810 Resistance : 810
Cut Loss :610 Support : 750
KLBF closed at 800 up 30 points. This closing near our target price 810. We still see an up trend for KLBF. However, it has moved up near its resistance. So we expect there should be profit taking. But for mid-term horizon trading, we still recommend to accumulate KLBF.
SGRO – Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Together with other CPO stocks, SGRO last Friday closed strong, up 6.3% to 1700. We see SGRO has broken up its consolidation phase and try to move upward. We see 1560 as support. We still bullish on SGRO because of strong CPO price. Correction we should expect, yet this one is still on the way up. Buy SGRO for short or mid-term horizon.
AALI - Buy
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
Together with other CPO stocks, AALI last Friday closed up 5.3% at 15850. For today trading we still recommend AALI for both fundamentally & technically point of view. From fundamental, CPO price that keep moving up since Oct’08 gives good reason for buying AALI. From technical there’re several points. (1) AALI chart move in line with CPO chart; (2) AALI chart shows patterns that easily mark. Everytime price touch MA20 most likely the price going up. And if we look at Stochastic it’s in oversold area. With strong volume last week, we still bullish on AALI
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO was proven cannot break its resistance at 1000 last week. After reaching high 1050 ADRO corrected into 1000. If we look at ADRO technical chart, this pattern is recognized very familiar. We still see an up trend movement for ADRO. Our trading target price still 1200. We believe ADRO will again try to break its resistance 1000.
Daily Review April 24, 2009
Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1576-1623
Suspended on a technical glitch. Last trade reading from IDX was 14:26:51 BUMI 1200 (-30).That’s what happened yesterday. According to news quoted by Bloomberg, IDX was suspended because of a technical glitch. JCI was suspended at 1592, down 22.53 point (-1.39%). Another bad day for Bakrie stocks. BUMI down 2.44%, BNBR -19.18%, ELTY -8%.
DJIA closed at 7957,06 up 70,49 points (++0,9%) due to better than expected result from two financial institutuions; PNC Financial Services Group Inc. & First Third Bancorp. From automotive industry, General Motors would temporarily shut down 13 plants in North America while the Treasury Deparment is preparing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy for Chrysler. March existing home sales down 2.97% to 4.57 million.
Today’s JCI range would be 1576-1623. Positve view is that CPO price up 6.7%; should be good for CPO stocks. Negative view is political differences between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar; will be discouraging for our market. For today’s top picks we put three new stocks (KLBF, APOL & AALI) for speculative trading. Though we drop SGRO & JSMR, we still recommend those two for mid-trading horizon. For PGAS, we put on hold on that because yesterday trade it still can’t break up 2450 resistance that we mentioned two days ago. Therefore we expect PGAS will be corrected moving to its support. Today’s picks are KLBF, APOL, INDF, ADRO & AALI.
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020
Yesterday it is proven that INDF closed in a positive trade. We still see 1020 support level is a crucial one. If we look at the trend, INDF is on the way up. Anyhow, yesterday low volume makes us a bit worry. Maybe it just because IDX is suspended after lunch. Our trading target at 1230.
KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :810 Resistance : 810
Cut Loss :610 Support : 750
Since last week KLBF has showed movement trying to break strong resistance 750. Yesterday that level has been crossed & now become support. We put KLBF as our new trading idea in notion that this stock used for speculative trading. Our target would be 810, which has been touched four times (3 times on July’08 & 1 time on yesterday’s highest).
APOL – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 340 Resistance : 340
Cut Loss : 215 Support : 280
Another of our speculative stock pick. APOL has moved up in the last two days with higher than usual volume. Yesterday it was closed up 1.8% to 285. News that APOL has sign a new contract of $60 millions serve as fundamental basis for this movement. From technical view, we see APOL has cross above its resistance 280. Our next resistance target would be 340, which we also recommend as short term target price. However, this one is for speculative mode.
AALI - Buy
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
One of the blue chip we love. AALI is terrific both fundamentally & technically point of view. From fundamental, CPO price that keep moving up since Oct’08 gives good reason for buying AALI. From technical there’re several points. (1) AALI chart move in line with CPO chart; (2) AALI chart shows patterns that easily mark. Everytime price touch MA20 most likely the price going up. And if we look at Stochastic it’s in oversold area. But the decreasing volume was not so impressing.
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO is one of few stocks that closed possitive yesterday. ADRO closed at 1010, gain 4.1%. We think news about Tata & Marubeni interesting in ADRO still a drive. Yesterday ADRO has cross our resistance at 1000. Yet we still should see whether this cross above will last. Need one or two days to prove it. However, our next resistance would be 1240.
Today’s Range : 1576-1623
Suspended on a technical glitch. Last trade reading from IDX was 14:26:51 BUMI 1200 (-30).That’s what happened yesterday. According to news quoted by Bloomberg, IDX was suspended because of a technical glitch. JCI was suspended at 1592, down 22.53 point (-1.39%). Another bad day for Bakrie stocks. BUMI down 2.44%, BNBR -19.18%, ELTY -8%.
DJIA closed at 7957,06 up 70,49 points (++0,9%) due to better than expected result from two financial institutuions; PNC Financial Services Group Inc. & First Third Bancorp. From automotive industry, General Motors would temporarily shut down 13 plants in North America while the Treasury Deparment is preparing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy for Chrysler. March existing home sales down 2.97% to 4.57 million.
Today’s JCI range would be 1576-1623. Positve view is that CPO price up 6.7%; should be good for CPO stocks. Negative view is political differences between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar; will be discouraging for our market. For today’s top picks we put three new stocks (KLBF, APOL & AALI) for speculative trading. Though we drop SGRO & JSMR, we still recommend those two for mid-trading horizon. For PGAS, we put on hold on that because yesterday trade it still can’t break up 2450 resistance that we mentioned two days ago. Therefore we expect PGAS will be corrected moving to its support. Today’s picks are KLBF, APOL, INDF, ADRO & AALI.
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020
Yesterday it is proven that INDF closed in a positive trade. We still see 1020 support level is a crucial one. If we look at the trend, INDF is on the way up. Anyhow, yesterday low volume makes us a bit worry. Maybe it just because IDX is suspended after lunch. Our trading target at 1230.
KLBF – Speculative Buy
Target Price :810 Resistance : 810
Cut Loss :610 Support : 750
Since last week KLBF has showed movement trying to break strong resistance 750. Yesterday that level has been crossed & now become support. We put KLBF as our new trading idea in notion that this stock used for speculative trading. Our target would be 810, which has been touched four times (3 times on July’08 & 1 time on yesterday’s highest).
APOL – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 340 Resistance : 340
Cut Loss : 215 Support : 280
Another of our speculative stock pick. APOL has moved up in the last two days with higher than usual volume. Yesterday it was closed up 1.8% to 285. News that APOL has sign a new contract of $60 millions serve as fundamental basis for this movement. From technical view, we see APOL has cross above its resistance 280. Our next resistance target would be 340, which we also recommend as short term target price. However, this one is for speculative mode.
AALI - Buy
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
One of the blue chip we love. AALI is terrific both fundamentally & technically point of view. From fundamental, CPO price that keep moving up since Oct’08 gives good reason for buying AALI. From technical there’re several points. (1) AALI chart move in line with CPO chart; (2) AALI chart shows patterns that easily mark. Everytime price touch MA20 most likely the price going up. And if we look at Stochastic it’s in oversold area. But the decreasing volume was not so impressing.
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
ADRO is one of few stocks that closed possitive yesterday. ADRO closed at 1010, gain 4.1%. We think news about Tata & Marubeni interesting in ADRO still a drive. Yesterday ADRO has cross our resistance at 1000. Yet we still should see whether this cross above will last. Need one or two days to prove it. However, our next resistance would be 1240.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Market Overview 23 April'09
Technical View
Today’s Range : 1639-1676
Another Bakrie-related stocks day. But yesterday was different. It was Bakrie-related stocks that dragged down JCI into negative territory. On the second session, investors dumped several Bakrie stocks. Coincidently, this happened as political news being released about Golkar and Partai Demokrat. BUMI was closed down 15.17%, BNBR -19.78%, ENRG -20.93%. Transaction value yesterday Rp 5.46 trillion, down 14.9% from the previous day.
DJIA was riding a bumpy ride last night. Hovering between positive & negative territory, finally DJIA closed in red at 7886 (-1.04%). Mixing earnings from two banks drove bank share volatile. Wells Fargo reported higher than expected quarterly result while Morgan Stanley earnings missed Wall Street forecasts. Earnings from McDonald & AT&T gave investors a glimmer of hope that consumer spending is improving.
A positive open in regional market this morning at 7:36 WIB (Nikkei +0.4%, KOSPI +0.27%, KLCI +0.2%) gives a glimmer optimist to our beloved JCI. We forecast today’s range would be 1639-1676. However, political perspective between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar will have an impact to our market. CPO price jump 4% last night and we think will have a positive impact to CPO-related stock. Our top picks for today are INDF, PGAS, SGRO, JSMR, ADRO.
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020
After move up 11% on Monday, yesterday INDF corrected 1.7% (-20 point). We still recommend to trade INDF. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225
PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.
SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. Last night CPO price up 4% to $715,50 & we think that was good news for SGRO. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830.
JSMR - Buy
Target Price : 1330 Resistance : 1210
Cut Loss : 830 Support : 1100
JSMR is one of our top picks. It has good business prospect. Fundamentally, for the last three years its revenue up 15.4% while net income up 17.67%. Also, JSMR has a good ROE at 10.77%. We really like JSMR business model. From technical side, buying signal has appeared since second of April. Since that day stock price rise gradually. We see there’s a strong resistance at 1210. Yesterday spike indicate JSMR is a good pick for mid-term investment.
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
News released by Kontan Daily that Marubeni & Tata interested in buying ADRO shares, boost ADRO price in the first session with high volume. We think investors speculate about this news. Kontan mentioned the strike price would be around Rp 1100. Should that news wasn’t true, we still recommend ADRO for mid to long term investing horizon. Technically, ADRO stock price is on the bullish mode with strong resistance at 1100. We investors should be very patience about ADRO since its price movement is not as volatile as BUMI.
DISCLAIMER ON. The following above is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks. Those are for my personal benefit only.
Today’s Range : 1639-1676
Another Bakrie-related stocks day. But yesterday was different. It was Bakrie-related stocks that dragged down JCI into negative territory. On the second session, investors dumped several Bakrie stocks. Coincidently, this happened as political news being released about Golkar and Partai Demokrat. BUMI was closed down 15.17%, BNBR -19.78%, ENRG -20.93%. Transaction value yesterday Rp 5.46 trillion, down 14.9% from the previous day.
DJIA was riding a bumpy ride last night. Hovering between positive & negative territory, finally DJIA closed in red at 7886 (-1.04%). Mixing earnings from two banks drove bank share volatile. Wells Fargo reported higher than expected quarterly result while Morgan Stanley earnings missed Wall Street forecasts. Earnings from McDonald & AT&T gave investors a glimmer of hope that consumer spending is improving.
A positive open in regional market this morning at 7:36 WIB (Nikkei +0.4%, KOSPI +0.27%, KLCI +0.2%) gives a glimmer optimist to our beloved JCI. We forecast today’s range would be 1639-1676. However, political perspective between Partai Demokrat & Partai Golkar will have an impact to our market. CPO price jump 4% last night and we think will have a positive impact to CPO-related stock. Our top picks for today are INDF, PGAS, SGRO, JSMR, ADRO.
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020
After move up 11% on Monday, yesterday INDF corrected 1.7% (-20 point). We still recommend to trade INDF. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225
PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.
SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. Last night CPO price up 4% to $715,50 & we think that was good news for SGRO. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830.
JSMR - Buy
Target Price : 1330 Resistance : 1210
Cut Loss : 830 Support : 1100
JSMR is one of our top picks. It has good business prospect. Fundamentally, for the last three years its revenue up 15.4% while net income up 17.67%. Also, JSMR has a good ROE at 10.77%. We really like JSMR business model. From technical side, buying signal has appeared since second of April. Since that day stock price rise gradually. We see there’s a strong resistance at 1210. Yesterday spike indicate JSMR is a good pick for mid-term investment.
ADRO - Buy
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
News released by Kontan Daily that Marubeni & Tata interested in buying ADRO shares, boost ADRO price in the first session with high volume. We think investors speculate about this news. Kontan mentioned the strike price would be around Rp 1100. Should that news wasn’t true, we still recommend ADRO for mid to long term investing horizon. Technically, ADRO stock price is on the bullish mode with strong resistance at 1100. We investors should be very patience about ADRO since its price movement is not as volatile as BUMI.
DISCLAIMER ON. The following above is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks. Those are for my personal benefit only.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Daily Review Apr09 22
MARKET REVIEW
Retracement or end of bull. Yesterday closing in negative teritory makes us a bit worry. Was yesterday just a pull back or the end of bull. One of the technical stuff we could use is Fibonacci retracement. Using lowest 1244 (3/3) and highest 1661 (20/4) we find a 23.6% retracement at 1563 & a 38.2% at 1502. So in a few days ahead we’ll test JCI whether it cross below 1563 and 1502. Should that happens, then we should be worry. Untill then, just sit tight and make a lot of money.
TECHNICAL VIEW
Today’s Range : 1622-1672
Finally after six days JCI closing positive, yersterday it was closed in negative teritory. Since the opening market showed weakness due to regional and profit taking. Several Bakrie stocks that has been driving JCI for the last couple of days closed at red. BUMI closed -2.03% at 1450 while BNBR -6.19% (91). The only Bakrie stock that showed a possitive return is ENRG which +33.5% at 215.
After opening in negative area, DJIA start to climbed up to positive teritory in mid day, closing at 7969 (+1.63%). The broader index S&P 500 also closed +2.13% while Nasdaq +2.22%. Comments from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the vast majority of banks have enough capital boosted banking shares, which in return drove DJIA & S&P 500 into positive closing.
Massive selling on BUMI & BNBR near the closing bell yesterday makes us a bit worry about the sustainability of the rally. Prudent investors should lock up their profit. But what happens last night at US market gives us a little hope that this rally at least will survive another day. Today JCI range is 1622-1672. Our picks for today are INDF (TP 1230), PGAS (TP 2600), SGRO (TP 1830), UNSP (TP 1750), BUMI (TP 2175).
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020
Yesterday INDF was closed up 11.1% at 1200. What makes it interesting is the volume spike. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225
PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.
SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830. But investors must have a little patience on SGRO since it moves not as volatile as UNSP; which is our next top pick.
UNSP - Buy
Target Price : 1750 Resistance : 1750
Cut Loss : 1040 Support : 1250
October 6, 2008 was the most memorable day for UNSP. That was the last trading day before Bakrie-related stocks were suspended by IDX. On that day UNSP was closed at 460. But hola, yesterday UNSP closed at 540, surpased the before suspended price level. Considering the trading volume we see a strong up side movement for UNSP. I think there is nothing wrong fundamentally with UNSP, only negative sentiment toward Bakrie’s name that pushed this stock down. Yet we must warn that this stock is very volatile and the risk implied is more than its peer. Investors should have a strong trading plan before jump into this stock.
BUMI - Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :670 Support : 1150
Riding with risk it is when we trade this stock. Yesterday we BUMI closed down 2% at 1450. We still see this is a healty correction. If we talk candle stick pattern, we saw doji yesterday. Supposedly that is not a good sign. So for today we should expect a correction. But hey, you’ll never know what’s going to happen with BUMI. Yet we’re very positive about this stock. Besides, BUMI has reached yet its last price level before being suspended last year. At that time, BUMI closed at 2175.
DISCLAIMER ON. The following is not a stock recommendation. Only used for my personal trading.
Retracement or end of bull. Yesterday closing in negative teritory makes us a bit worry. Was yesterday just a pull back or the end of bull. One of the technical stuff we could use is Fibonacci retracement. Using lowest 1244 (3/3) and highest 1661 (20/4) we find a 23.6% retracement at 1563 & a 38.2% at 1502. So in a few days ahead we’ll test JCI whether it cross below 1563 and 1502. Should that happens, then we should be worry. Untill then, just sit tight and make a lot of money.
TECHNICAL VIEW
Today’s Range : 1622-1672
Finally after six days JCI closing positive, yersterday it was closed in negative teritory. Since the opening market showed weakness due to regional and profit taking. Several Bakrie stocks that has been driving JCI for the last couple of days closed at red. BUMI closed -2.03% at 1450 while BNBR -6.19% (91). The only Bakrie stock that showed a possitive return is ENRG which +33.5% at 215.
After opening in negative area, DJIA start to climbed up to positive teritory in mid day, closing at 7969 (+1.63%). The broader index S&P 500 also closed +2.13% while Nasdaq +2.22%. Comments from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the vast majority of banks have enough capital boosted banking shares, which in return drove DJIA & S&P 500 into positive closing.
Massive selling on BUMI & BNBR near the closing bell yesterday makes us a bit worry about the sustainability of the rally. Prudent investors should lock up their profit. But what happens last night at US market gives us a little hope that this rally at least will survive another day. Today JCI range is 1622-1672. Our picks for today are INDF (TP 1230), PGAS (TP 2600), SGRO (TP 1830), UNSP (TP 1750), BUMI (TP 2175).
Today’s Top Picks
INDF – Buy
Target Price :1230 Resistance : 1290
Cut Loss :900 Support : 1020
Yesterday INDF was closed up 11.1% at 1200. What makes it interesting is the volume spike. Technically, INDF has moved up crossing resistance 1020, which now become support. We should look forward to test whether this new support stand. But considering high volume we think INDF is a buy. Our trading target at 1230.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price :2600 Resistance : 2450
Cut Loss :1750 Support : 2225
PGAS is one of the most difficult stock to read technically. Since the beginning of April PGAS try to break its resistance at 2450 without any success. Once again yesterday proved this notion which PGAS reached its high at 2500 but closed at 2425. We suggest investors put PGAS on waiting list. If it breaks resistance 2450 with strong volume, a buy recommentadion for trading is on. Mean while just wait.
SGRO - Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Resistance level at 1560 is a strong resistance for SGRO which it has three times tried to break it but fail. First attempt at Nov 5’08, second Jan 7’09 & third Apr 3’09. On the fourth attempt on Apr 15’09 finally it was broken. Now 1560 serves as SGRO support. For investing we think SGRO is a good valued company. Our trading target is 1830. But investors must have a little patience on SGRO since it moves not as volatile as UNSP; which is our next top pick.
UNSP - Buy
Target Price : 1750 Resistance : 1750
Cut Loss : 1040 Support : 1250
October 6, 2008 was the most memorable day for UNSP. That was the last trading day before Bakrie-related stocks were suspended by IDX. On that day UNSP was closed at 460. But hola, yesterday UNSP closed at 540, surpased the before suspended price level. Considering the trading volume we see a strong up side movement for UNSP. I think there is nothing wrong fundamentally with UNSP, only negative sentiment toward Bakrie’s name that pushed this stock down. Yet we must warn that this stock is very volatile and the risk implied is more than its peer. Investors should have a strong trading plan before jump into this stock.
BUMI - Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :670 Support : 1150
Riding with risk it is when we trade this stock. Yesterday we BUMI closed down 2% at 1450. We still see this is a healty correction. If we talk candle stick pattern, we saw doji yesterday. Supposedly that is not a good sign. So for today we should expect a correction. But hey, you’ll never know what’s going to happen with BUMI. Yet we’re very positive about this stock. Besides, BUMI has reached yet its last price level before being suspended last year. At that time, BUMI closed at 2175.
DISCLAIMER ON. The following is not a stock recommendation. Only used for my personal trading.
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