Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1580-1662
Back into blue chips. Again JCI gain 3.02% on yesterday closed at 1644 (+48.27%). We see a very strong movement near the closing time which volume jumped. Optimism in emerging market was one of the main driver. Regional index also closed up around 2%. MSCI Asia Pacific (excl. Japan) rose 2.3%. We really like yesterday strong market because it was driven by blue chip. Stocks like UNTR, BBNI, PTBA, ASII, BDMN & TLKM were booked in the top ten by value.
US market was spectacular last night. DJIA posted gain +2.11% to 8185.78 while Nasdaq closed at 1711.94 up +2.28%. Statements from the Fed that the recession has started to ease gave investors confidence. Also the Fed at FOMC last night kept their rate steady at 0.00%-0.25%. Despiste US 1Q08 GDP data which shows contraction -6.1%, investors chose to ignore negative news. They prefer to listen to the positive one such as Consumer Confidence that rose to 39.2.
We’re a bit more cheerful than yesterday in our market review. Strong movement from blue chips is an indicator we like so much. Then optimism on Wall Street last night confirm our notion for today. Commodities & metal prices up on average 2%-4% amid optimism that the recession is on the bottom right now. For today’s range JCI will be 1580-1662. We cast out our second liners picks and move to blue chips. Watch for commodities, metals & infrastructures stocks. We recommend a buy on TLKM, UNTR, ASII, PTBA & PGAS.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000
After rose +4.9% two days ago, yesterday again TLKM up +2.7%. We belive TLKM result still effect investors to persue this blue chip. We have several reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We still recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 8100
Cut Loss :6350 Support : 7100
Result of 1Q09 profit that jump 57% to Rp 812 billion boost UNTR price yesterday with a very high volume. UNTR closed at 7950, up 550 points (+7.38%). We recommend investors to trade on UNTR with our target price 9750. However, we see a resistance at 8100. So once the price moving up near this level, we should expect a correction. However if the market is very strong, we believe that resistance will be pass above easily.
ASII – Buy
Target Price : 17800 Resistance : 16000
Cut Loss : 12600 Support : 14450
ASII is moving up near its strong resistance at 16000. This resistance has been in existance for almost a month. We would see whether today’s trading ASII is able to break up that level. High volume trading of yesterday makes us confidence in ASII for short term trading. Our target price would be 17800. However, if ASII fail its resistance, it should be moving back toward support 14450.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 10500 Resistance : 9000
Cut Loss : 7250 Support : 8350
Another stock that try to break up its resistance. PTBA yesterday closed at 9100 (+4.55%) break up a bit its 9000 resistance. Since first week of April PTBA was not succeed in breaking this level. However, yesterday we saw a strong volume for PTBA. We’re bullish on PTBA for short term trading. Our target would be 10500.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price :2500 Resistance : 2500
Cut Loss :1875 Support : 2225
For two days trading PGAS has been up. Technically we see PGAS try to move toward its resistance at 2500, which in our opinion is a strong resistance & serve as our short term target. But for long-term holding (2009-10 horizon), we are very bullish on PGAS. But we are concern about its decrasing volume. In this case, our recommendation would be buy for mid to long term holding. Should our target 2500 being reached, our next target would be 2950.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
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