Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1564-1629
Quite amazing JCI yesterday. While regional bourses closed mostly down amid the swine flu, JCI has managed to close up 1.26% (+19.83 points) to 1595. The main drivers besides Bakrie related stocks was TLKM which 4.9% due to better-than-expected result for FY08. Yet, instead of being joyful, we are afraid of what happened to JCI was a pumping-the-market scenario. Because technically, we’re seeing a down trend for JCI since April 21; in which JCI has cross below its MA200.
The fear of the swine flu becomes a pandemic, which in turn will have a negative impact to the already declining economy, and the worry about the health of US banks put US markets down last night. DJIA closed down a bit to 8016 (-0.10%) while Nasdaq down 0.33% to 1673. Reports that Bank of America & Citigroup still need more capital added more tension to Wall Street. The bright sight is the Consumer Confidence Index in April rose to 39.2 from 26.9 in March.
Today we expect JCI range would be 1564-1629 with the possibility of profit taking. We’re strongly advice our investors to be more conservative; take profit & don’t be too aggressive, focus on blue chip, and hold a cash reserve. In our top picks we’re already suggested to take some profit for several stocks we’ve recommended earlier. Take profit on KLBF, AALI. Hold on SGRO, ADRO. And our new pick is TLKM on buy.
Today’s Top Picks
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :7900 Resistance : 7900
Cut Loss :6150 Support : 7000
Yesterday TLKM closed up 350 points (+4.9%) to 7450. We believe TLKM was one of the driver that keep JCI in positive territory. We have xx reasons to be technically bullish on TLKM. (1) its charts shows a higher lows at 6850 & 7100; (2) increasing volume; (3) FY08 result. We recommend a buy on TLKM with very short term target at 7900.
KLBF – Profit Taking
Target Price :920 Resistance : 920
Cut Loss :610 Support : 860
We predict KLBF will surge amid positive sentiment on pharmaceutical stocks but it lost its power. Yesterday KLBF closed at previous level 870 while its peer (KAEF, INAF) up 6%. For the moment we think this is just because investors that has jumped in earlier took their profit. However, we recommend our investors to be conservative on KLBF. Don’t speculate too much on it. Yes technically we see a strong movement; but we don’t know when it ends.
SGRO – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1830
Cut Loss : 1120 Support : 1560
Despite weakness in CPO price, SGRO yesterday managed to book a 1.2% gain; closed at 1640 SGRO up 20 points. We still see SGRO move between its support-resistance trading range. We recommend our investors to hold a mid to long term view on SGRO because we see this stock has a strong fundamental and technically in upward trend. Having said that, se still recommend SGRO.
AALI – Profit Taking
Target Price : 16300 Resistance : 16300
Cut Loss : 11800 Support : 14600
Not so strong movement it was on AALI yesterday. It corrected 200 points (-1.3%) to 1550. Correction on CPO price we suspect to be the main driver for AALI. We should expect more correction on CPO stocks in a few coming days, but we still recommend a buy on AALI. Watch everytime AALI price touched or cross below a bit its MA20, it usually a buying point signal.
ADRO – Profit Taking
Target Price :1200 Resistance : 1000
Cut Loss :750 Support : 880
News released by InvestorDaily about ADRO’s former shareholder put a little burden on ADRO price yesterday; in which down 20 points to 1000. This level is our resistance level. We’re not sure how this news will impact ADRO fundamentally, and from yesterday trading we think we haven’t seen the market capitalized the news. Therefore we take a little cautious on ADRO. We recommend ADRO for trading and mid-term holding due to this expectation of shareholder selling on premium price.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell stocks. Those are for my personal purpose only.
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