MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1806-1854
Optimism not only visited ISX but also regional market. Nikkei was up 4.5% while Hang Seng up 2.3%. Our beloved JCI yesterday gain 1.7% (30.5 points) to 1828. BUMI once again became the darling. In the first session BUMI basically moved in sideways but flying to the moon in the second session. BUMI transaction value reached Rp 2.4 trillion or 27% of total ISX transaction (Rp 8.9 trillion). Anticipation of the result of US bank test still becomes the catalist of global market.
Investors sell on news last night after the Federal Reserved announced its stress test results. DJIA was down 102.43 points (-1.2%) to 8409 while Nasdaq down 2.4% to 1716. Ten out of 19 financial institutions need additional capital of $75 billion. Amongst them are Bank of America needs $33.9B, Wells Fargo $13.7B, Citigroup $5.5B & Morgan Stanley $1.8B. Banks that are considered not needing additional capital are JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sach Group, American Express, Capital One Financial & MetLife Inc. Meanwhile, Initial Claims for unemployment down to 601,000 (previous 631,000) and Productivity for 1Q09 rose 0.8% (4Q08 -0.4%).
Today we projected for JCI with trading range of 1806-1854. We are opened to profit taking since it’s been quite a week rally, sell on news of the stress banks result & it’s Friday. Catalyst for up trend would be from commodities & metals stocks (oil, nickel & tin surged last night) Our recommendation for today would be BUMI (Buy; R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Hold; R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Buy; R-2950, S-2500), ELSA (Hold; R-410, S-300) & ANTM (Buy; R-1920, S-1470).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Profit Taking/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570
Another marvelous day for BUMI’s lovers. Just like two days ago, yesterday BUMI mostly moved flat in the first session but shoot up in the second session. BUMI moved from lowest 1810 to 1960, up 10.7%. Looking at its volume, we get confirmation of its move. But once again, anything can happen to BUMI. We still maintain our speculative buy on BUMI with 2175 target price.
TLKM – Hold
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level. For the mean time we put a hold on TLKM. But in the mid to long run we’re positive about TLKM. Our trading target price would be 8000.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500
After breaking its 2600 resistance we think PGAS took a short break. Yesterday it was down 100 points to 2675. We should see whether this is just a pullback or else. From the volume analysis we still see an uptrend on PGAS. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.
ELSA – Speculative Buy/Profit Taking
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300
After surged 9% two days ago, yesterday ELSA closed unmoved at 345. We could think of two reasons. (1) investors are taking profit on news; (2) investors were too busy on BUMI. News about ELSA has been out such as its dividen announcement, its upcoming projects for FY09. The only think investors are waiting is confirmation about ELSA’s shares sale. For a short term trading we think should take a profit, but for those with longer term we still recommend a speculative buy.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
Strong nickel price in international market boost ANTM price to 1730 yesterday. We still set a speculative buy on ANTM. However we find a less encouraging pattern from ANTM chart. (1) yesterday gap could become ‘an island’; (2) decreasing volume while price spike. Don’t too aggressive on ANTM.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
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