MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1821-1883
Last week JCI posted another 7% gain, in which JCI was opened at 1729 (4/5) and closed at 1862 level (8/5). Bakrie-related stocks, especially BUMI, became the main driver of JCI strong movement. BUMI itself last week posted a 24% gains in which on Friday it was closed at 1930. Domestic economic factor that influence capital market was the decision by Bank Indonesia to reduce BI Rate to 7.25% level. And from US, the result of the 19 big financial institutions stress test became the catalyst for the week.
DJIA was up 164 points last Friday to 8574 after investors were confidence with US financial institutions. The stress banks results was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile from unemployment data showed a slight recovery in which April non-farm payroll reduced by 539,000 (better than March -663k) and unemployment rate reached 8.9%. Combined with initial claims data which published the day before, these data showed that the economy is on their way to recovery.
For this week we think there’s a moderate probability for correction. Our indicators has stated an overbought signal. We also saw BUMI last Friday cannot continue its rally; in which BUMI was down 1.5% on that day. Besides, all catalyst such as 1Q09 results, US stress banks tests, economics data has been poured out. Next data we’ve been looking for would be 2Q09 results. Our JCI trading range for today is 1821-1883. Our recommendations for today are Sell on BUMI (R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (R-8000, S-7100), Hold PGAS (R-2950, S-2500) & Speculative Buy on ANTM (R-1920, S-1470), TINS (R-2400, S-1760).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570
On last Friday BUMI was closed at 1930, down 30 points. After in two days trying to break its 2175 resistance, we saw markets start selling at that level. We see 2000 level will be a very crucial. Markets will try to break it above. At this level, we recommend to hold on BUMI. Wait until correction to collect BUMI at lower level price.
TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
We see TLKM price try to move back to its MA 50. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. But for a while we recommend a sell on TLKM, wait until it really touches its MA50.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500
From technical view we’re still bullish on PGAS. Though it’s not as volatile as BUMI, we see PGAS is trying to reach its 2950 resistance level. Technical indicators such as OBV, MACD support this notion. We recommend PGAS with a 2950 target price. From last Friday’s closing price, there’s still a 8% potential gain.
TINS – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 2400
Resistance : 2400
Cut Loss : 1625
Support : 1760
Last minutes rally. That’s what happened on TINS last Friday. Fundamentally, strong tin price should be a catalist for TINS to surge 14.4% to 2025. Technically, last week rally was a bit worry. Indicators like MACD and volume showed a bearish divergence. Also last minutes rally should raise a questions. However, we think strong tin price still be a good reason for TINS. We give a speculative buy on TINS with cautions.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
Identical twins with TINS yesterday. Surged 10.4% in the last minutes rally. But we have several indicators that contradict to this rally. (1) volume decrasing; (2) MACD up; (3) OBV up; (4) stochastic overbought. We still give a speculative buy on ANTM with cautions.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading only.
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