Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1705-1752
JCI last Friday closed at 1729, not much difference from the day before. JCI only booked 6.2 points or 0.4%. There’re two main drivers of JCI last week. First, the announcement of inflation, in which on April posted a deflation of 0.31% (mom). Inflation for yoy +7.31% and ytd +0.05%. Another driver was the announcement of corporate first quarter result. ANTM’s 1Q09 profit down 87% from a year before to Rp 90 billion while PGAS’s FY08 profit down 45.5% to Rp 633.85 billion due to forex loss. ANTM down 4.2% (closed at 1370) & PGAS down 3.8% (2500).
Last week was an amazing week for JCI, in which it posted a 8% gains. On Monday (27/4) JCI opened at 1591 and closed on Friday (1/5) at 1729. April’s deflation data gave investors confidence for another BI Rate cuts. In the mean time, in US market DJIA also posted a 1% gain, opened at 8073 on Monday & closed on Friday at 8212. News about Chrysler filled a Chapter 11 & a rising in Consumer Confidence to 39.2 gave investors ideas that the deteriorating has slowed.
For today we forecast JCI will move in a 1705-1752 trading range. News about deflation & corporate 1Q08 still will be the main driver. Our top picks for today are BUMI (target price 2175), UNTR (9750), SGRO (1830), AALI (18300) & ADRO (1300). All given a buy recommendation except for SGRO which we encourage our investors to take profit.
Today’s Top Picks
BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 1570
Cut Loss :1210 Support : 1200
Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. There’s only one reason we recommend BUMI; simply because of the herd mentality. Meaning we buy BUMI because everybody buy it. We sell BUMI because everyone does it. As simple as that. No string attached. Technically we see a strong support at 1570. Our mid-term target would be 2175. Investors please be careful, the volatility, the risk in this stock is very high. Once something become wrong, don’t hesitate to cut your position. In the mean time, just enjoy the ride.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 9750
Cut Loss :7450 Support : 7550
Another 3.3% gain. In the last two days trading UNTR has booked 16% profits. Also in two days it broke its two resistance level; first at 8100 then at 9000. Our next resistance is 9750. However, the decreasing volume should be a warning to traders. But for mid-term view we still recommend a buy on UNTR. Our short-term target price woulde be 9750 while our mid-term target price is 10750.
SGRO – Take Profit
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1710
Cut Loss : 1340 Support : 1600
Slow but sure; that SGRO is all about. In the full month of April itself SGRO has gain 30% profit. The up-trend in CPO price has been a factor to SGRO movement. We still see a mid-term uptrend for SGRO. There’s a resistance at 1710; which has been tasted last Friday but failed back to 1680. Should this 1710 resistance being crossed above, we set our short-term target price at 1830. But amid weak weekly technical, we recommend to take profit first for SGRO.
AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300 Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 13700 Support : 16000
Another day for one of Astra related stock. Last Friday it’s time for AALI to surge quite high. It has finally crossed above its 16000 resistance level and closed at 17200. The increasing volume in the last three days showed a strong injection into AALI. We set our next target price and resistance at 18300. However, investors should expect a correction as traders book their profit.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300 Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss :850 Support : 1000
News San Miquel and others company to buy stake at ADRO keep boosting its price up to 1200, in which being said as the selling price. But we’re not confirm about this level. However, ADRO last Friday has crossed above its resistance level at 1000. We should test this level in the coming days. Should this last, we set our next resistance at 1300. From fundamental side, ADRO has reported its 1Q09 result; which it booked a Rp 1.14 trillion profit comparing to a Rp 12.5 billion loss at 1Q08. We recommend a buy on ADRO.
JCI last Friday closed at 1729, not much difference from the day before. JCI only booked 6.2 points or 0.4%. There’re two main drivers of JCI last week. First, the announcement of inflation, in which on April posted a deflation of 0.31% (mom). Inflation for yoy +7.31% and ytd +0.05%. Another driver was the announcement of corporate first quarter result. ANTM’s 1Q09 profit down 87% from a year before to Rp 90 billion while PGAS’s FY08 profit down 45.5% to Rp 633.85 billion due to forex loss. ANTM down 4.2% (closed at 1370) & PGAS down 3.8% (2500).
Last week was an amazing week for JCI, in which it posted a 8% gains. On Monday (27/4) JCI opened at 1591 and closed on Friday (1/5) at 1729. April’s deflation data gave investors confidence for another BI Rate cuts. In the mean time, in US market DJIA also posted a 1% gain, opened at 8073 on Monday & closed on Friday at 8212. News about Chrysler filled a Chapter 11 & a rising in Consumer Confidence to 39.2 gave investors ideas that the deteriorating has slowed.
For today we forecast JCI will move in a 1705-1752 trading range. News about deflation & corporate 1Q08 still will be the main driver. Our top picks for today are BUMI (target price 2175), UNTR (9750), SGRO (1830), AALI (18300) & ADRO (1300). All given a buy recommendation except for SGRO which we encourage our investors to take profit.
Today’s Top Picks
BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 1570
Cut Loss :1210 Support : 1200
Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. There’s only one reason we recommend BUMI; simply because of the herd mentality. Meaning we buy BUMI because everybody buy it. We sell BUMI because everyone does it. As simple as that. No string attached. Technically we see a strong support at 1570. Our mid-term target would be 2175. Investors please be careful, the volatility, the risk in this stock is very high. Once something become wrong, don’t hesitate to cut your position. In the mean time, just enjoy the ride.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 9750
Cut Loss :7450 Support : 7550
Another 3.3% gain. In the last two days trading UNTR has booked 16% profits. Also in two days it broke its two resistance level; first at 8100 then at 9000. Our next resistance is 9750. However, the decreasing volume should be a warning to traders. But for mid-term view we still recommend a buy on UNTR. Our short-term target price woulde be 9750 while our mid-term target price is 10750.
SGRO – Take Profit
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1710
Cut Loss : 1340 Support : 1600
Slow but sure; that SGRO is all about. In the full month of April itself SGRO has gain 30% profit. The up-trend in CPO price has been a factor to SGRO movement. We still see a mid-term uptrend for SGRO. There’s a resistance at 1710; which has been tasted last Friday but failed back to 1680. Should this 1710 resistance being crossed above, we set our short-term target price at 1830. But amid weak weekly technical, we recommend to take profit first for SGRO.
AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300 Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 13700 Support : 16000
Another day for one of Astra related stock. Last Friday it’s time for AALI to surge quite high. It has finally crossed above its 16000 resistance level and closed at 17200. The increasing volume in the last three days showed a strong injection into AALI. We set our next target price and resistance at 18300. However, investors should expect a correction as traders book their profit.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300 Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss :850 Support : 1000
News San Miquel and others company to buy stake at ADRO keep boosting its price up to 1200, in which being said as the selling price. But we’re not confirm about this level. However, ADRO last Friday has crossed above its resistance level at 1000. We should test this level in the coming days. Should this last, we set our next resistance at 1300. From fundamental side, ADRO has reported its 1Q09 result; which it booked a Rp 1.14 trillion profit comparing to a Rp 12.5 billion loss at 1Q08. We recommend a buy on ADRO.
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