Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Global Commodities : 3Q Perspective

Global commodities performance.

  • Selama 3Q10 harga timah di pasar London mencatatkan kenaikan +43%, outperformed dibanding harga komoditas lainnya.
  • Selama 3Q10 harga batubara Eropa mengalami koreksi -1.1%, underperformed dibanding harga komoditas lainnya.

  • Selama 9M10 harga timah di pasar Londong mencatatkan kenaikan +39%, outperformed dibanding harga komoditas lainnya.
  • Selama 9M10 harga minyak bumi mengalami koreksi -1.9%, underperformed dibanding harga komoditas lainnya.


Batubara.

  • Rata rata harga batubara Eropa selama 3Q10 naik +36% ke level $98.08/mton.
  • Rata rata harga batubara Eropa selama 9M10 naik +15% ke level $96.03/mton.
  • Kami proyeksikan harga rata rata batubara Eropa 2010 mencapai $90/mton, naik +25% dibanding 2009

  • Selama periode 9M10 saham BYAN outperformed peers & IHSG dengan mencatatkan kenaikan +99%.
  • Saham BUMI underperformed peers & IHSG dengan mengalami penurunan -12%.


Oil & Gas.

  • Rata rata harga minyak bumi selama 3Q10 naik +11% ke level $76.09/barrel.
  • Rata rata harga minyak bumi selama 9M10 naik +35% ke level $77.58/barrel.
  • Kami proyeksikan harga rata rata minyak bumi 2010 mencapai $87/barrel, naik +24% dibanding 2009.

  • Selama periode 9M10 saham MEDC outperformed peers dengan mencatatkan kenaikan +36%.
  • Saham ENRG underperformed peers & IHSG dengan mengalami penurunan -41%.


Metals.

  • Rata rata harga emas selama 3Q10 naik +27% ke level $1,227/troy ounce.
  • Rata rata harga emas selama 9M10 naik +26% ke level $1,178/troy ounce.
  • Kami proyeksikan harga rata rata emas 2010 mencapai $1,240/troy ounce, naik +27% dibanding 2009.

  • Rata rata harga nickel di pasar London selama 3Q10 naik +21% ke level $21,225/mton.
  • Rata rata harga nickel di pasar London selama 9M10 naik +54% ke level $21,217/mton.
  • Kami proyeksikan harga rata rata nickel 2010 mencapai $20,255/mton, naik +37% dibanding 2009.

  • Rata rata harga timah di pasar London selama 3Q10 naik +41% ke level $20,541/mton.
  • Rata rata harga timah di pasar London selama 9M10 naik +41% ke level $18,546/mton.
  • Kami proyeksikan harga rata rata timah 2010 mencapai $19,285/mton, naik +41% dibanding 2009.

  • Selama periode 9M10 saham TINS outperformed peers & IHSG dengan mencatatkan kenaikan +58%.
  • Saham ANTM underperformed peers & IHSG dengan kenaikan hanya sebesar +8%.


Crude Palm Oil.

  • Rata rata harga CPO di pasar Rotterdam selama 3Q10 naik +29% ke level $874/ton.
  • Rata rata harga CPO di pasar Rotterdam selama 9M10 naik +25% ke level $831/ton.
  • Kami proyeksikan harga rata rata CPO Rotterdam 2010 mencapai $870/ton, naik +27% dibanding 2009.

  • Selama periode 9M10 saham GZCO outperformed peers & IHSG dengan mencatatkan kenaikan +59%.
  • Saham UNSP underperformed peers & IHSG dengan membukukan penurunan -41%.

Disclosure : I hold none of the stocks mentioned above by the time this article is published. This article is my personal view & it might be different from my professional view.
DISCLAIMER ON.

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