Market View - August 6, 2009

Asian stocks fell yesterday after a dissapointing results from Isuzu Motors and Elpida Memory. Positive news from UK’s consumer confidence that rose to 60 could not help Asian markets. Nikkei plunged 122.48 pts (-1.2%) to 10,252 and Hangseng plummeted 301.66 pts (-1.5%) to 20,494. JCI fell 43 pts (-1.82%) to 2,317. US stocks fell after worse-than-expected report on job losses and service industries. DJIA fell 39.22 pts (-0.4%) to 9,280 and Nasdaq fell 18.26 pts (-0.9%) to 1,993. ADP Employer Services showed companies cut 371,000 workers in July, more than the 350,000 cut market expected. Meanwhile, the ISM’s index of service busineses fell to 46.4 in July from 47 the month before. Market expected ISM services will rise to 48. Bank Indonesia cut its BI Rate by 25 bps to 6.5% as expected. However, BI also indicated that further cuts might be unwarranted as inflation was expected to rise next year. Based on technical, JCI took a pullback after a three-weeks rally. Using fibonacci, we have a 76.4% retracement at 2,425 as our strong resistance and 61.2% retracement at 2,170 as a strong support. We expect another pullback in the coming days because of valuation play. Our range for JCI today is 2,296-2,350 and our recommendations are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-30,000, S-27,200), Adaro Energy (ADRO, Buy, R-1,450, S-1,260), Int’l Nickel Indonesia(INCO, Buy, R-5,350, S-4,050) and Indofood (INDF, Sell, R-2,300, S-1,730).

Market View - August 5, 2009

Asian markets ended mix yesterday as futures on US market fell into negative territory despite positive results from manufacturing index and construction spending. Nikkei added 22.54 pts (+0.22%) to 10,375 while Hangseng fell 10.83 pts (-0.05%) to 20,796. Higher oil and metal prices became the catalyst as market expected economic recovery. JCI added 21.29 pts (+0.91%) to 2,360 led mostly by commodity stocks. DJIA added 33.63 pts (+0.4%) to 9,320 as pending home sales rose 3.6% in June, higher than the +0.7% market expected. On corporate news, Caterpillar Inc. increased their earnings outlook from $8/share to $10/share in 2012. Japanese stocks opened positive this morning as Toyota Motor Corp. raised its outlook.                         Based on technical, JCI broke out its 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 2,170 and now tries to break out its 76.4% fibo retracement at 2,425. JCI’s weekly chart forms a soucer shape with its neckline at 2,556. If JCI breaks out 76.4% fibo retracement then it is possible JCI moves to 2,556 which is also this week’s third resistance. Bank Indonesia is expected to cut BI Rate by 25 bps to 6.5% today as inflation fell to 2.71% yoy in July, lower than June’s 3.65% yoy. Our range for JCI today is 2,339-2,382 and our picks are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,400, S-30,000), Adaro Energy (ADRO, Buy, R-1,450, S-1,260), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-8,000, S-6,500) and Jasa Marga (JSMR, Buy, R-1,940, S-1,680).

Market View - 4 August 2009

Most Asian stocks rose yesterday as encouraging comments came from Alan Greenspan and Nouriel Roubini. The New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, known as Dr. Doom, said that commodity prices may extend their rally in 2010 as the global recession abates. Earlier before, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recession might be ending. Nikkei slid slightly 4.36 pts (-0.04%) to 10,352 while Hangseng surged 233.93 pts (+1.14%) to 20,807. JCI added 15.56 pts (+0.67%) to 2,338. DJIA surged to 9,286, the highest level in 2009, posted a 1.3% (+114 pts) gain as positive results from manufacturing index, construction spending and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index. Manufacturing index rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June while construction spending rose 0.3% in June from -0.8% in May. China’s PMI rose to 52.8 in July, the hishest level in 2009, from 51.8 in June.                         The Central Statistics Bureau announced consumer prices rose 0.45% (mom) in July, or 2.71% yoy, lower than June’s 3.65% yoy. Lower inflation opened room for Bank Indonesia to cut BI Rate by 25 bps to 6.5% this Wednesday (5/8) on Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI. Our range for JCI today is 2,324-2,351 and our picks are Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300), Astra International(ASII, Buy, R-32,400, S-30,000), Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS, Buy, R-3,875, S-3,425), Int’l Nickel Indonesia (INCO, Buy, R-5,350, S-4,050) and Jasa Marga (JSMR, Buy, R-1,810, S-1,680).

Market View - 03 August 2009

It was another positive week for Asian markets last week despite Wednesday (29/7) selloff from China’s market. Nikkei surged 4.14% to 10,356 last week while Hangseng ended at 20,573, added a 2,96% gain. DJIA was slightly up 0.86% to 9,171. Data from US showed that the pace of economic decline slowed as mention in the Fed’s beige book. New home sales jumped 10.98% in June to 384,000 while initial claims reached 584,000 last week. 2Q GDP contracted 1%, better than the -1.5% market expected. However, US consumer confidence dropped to 46.6 in July, lower than June’s 49.3 reading. In Japan, factory output rose 2.4% in June. This week markets will wait for several US economic data such as construction spending (3/8), factory orders (5/8) and unemployment rate (7/8). Markets expect construction spending will contract 0.6% in June, better than May’s -0.9% while factory orders is expected to rise 0.5% in June, lower than May’s 1.2%. Markets also prepare for another high unemployment rate at 9.6% in July.                                                              JCI surged 6.32% last week, ended at 2,323. Bakrie’s shares and banking stocks led our market. For this week we forecast JCI will be in a 2,231 to 2,369 range. One positive catalyst for JCI would be a lower inflation. BPS forecast month on month inflation in July could be as low as 0.2%-0.5% and year on year at 3%. Our picks for this week are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,400, S-27,200), Bank Mandiri (BMRI, Buy, R-4,625, S-3,600), United Tractors (UNTR, Buy, R-13,500, S-11,500) and Bumi Resources (BUMI, Buy, R-3,500, S-2,300).

Market View - 31 July 2009

Asian markets rose yesterday, rebounding from earlier declines, as better than expected results from Mitsubishi Electric and Honda Motor. Also comment from China central bank that they will control lending growth by using market tools instead of quantity controls gave investors their confidence back. Nikkei was up 0.51% (+51.97 pts) to 10,165 and Hangseng added 0.49% (+98.58 pts) to 20,234. JCI surged 3.25% (+72.32 pts) to 2,298 led by Bakrie’s shares and banking stocks. Bumi Resources (BUMI) surged 10.23% (+225 pts) after the company released its plan to sell $200 million of convertible bonds. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) advanced 6.08% (+225 pts) after the company posted its better than expected 1H result. US markets rose as companies such as Motorola Inc. and MasterCard. Inc. posted better-than-expected earning results and initial claims held below June levels. DJIA added 0.9% (+83.74 pts) to 9,154 and Nasdaq was up 0.8% (+16.54 pts) to 1,984. Initial claims last week rose 4.47% to 584,000 but it was still below June’s 600,000 average. We are still bullish on JCI as we said yesterday in our Daily Technical. Technial indicators such as MACD, stochastic, moving averages show that JCI is on its upward trend. Earning results, commodity and metal prices and inflation still become our catalyst in the next few trading days. Today we expect JCI is in its 2,245-2,325 trading range. Our picks for today are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Bank Mandiri (BMRI, Buy, R-4,275, S-3,600), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300) and Bumi Resources (BUMI, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300).

Market View - 30 July 200c

Asian markets mostly ended in negative territory yesterday as investors sold their shares amid worse than expected earning results. A dissapointing US consumer confidence also became the negative catalyst for the markets. Hangseng fell 2.37% (-489 pts) to 20,135 while Shanghai plummeted 5% (-171 pts) to 3,266. Nikkei however was up 0.26% (+25 pts) to 10,113. JCI was slightly down by 0.5% (-11.29 pts) to 2,225. JCI touched its lowest at 2,190 in the start of the second session but positive opening from European markets cut JCI’s losses to ended higher at 2,225.  DJIA fell 26 pts (-0.3%) to 9,070 and Nasdaq also fell 7.75 pts (-0.4%) to 1,967 as durable orders dropped 2.5% in July, worse than the 0.6% drop market expected. The positive catalyst came from the Federal Reserve which in its beige book mentioned that the pace of economic decline slowed in June and July, indicating the worst of US downturn was closer to an end. From Japan, factory output rose 2.4% in June.  In our opinion yesterday was just another healthy correction. Technial indicator such as MACD still shows that JCI is on its upward trend. Earning results and inflation still become our catalyst. Positive review from the Fed and Japanese factory output should impact positively to our market today. We expect JCI will be moving in a 2,196 to 2,247 range. Our picks for today are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam(PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-22,250, S-16,000), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-1,730) and Semen Gresik (SMGR, Buy, R-6,250, S-5,250).

Market View - 30 July 2009

Sebagian besar pasar di Asia kemarin ditutup dalam teritori negatif seiring dengan aksi investor yang melepas saham mereka akibat laporan keuangan sejumlah perusahaan di China dan Hongkong yang berada dibawah ekspektasi pasar. Selain itu memburuknya data consumer confidence Amerika juga mendorong pasar melakukan aksi profit taking. Bursa Hangseng jatuh 2.37% (-489 poin) ke level 20,135 dan bursa Shanghai anjlok 5% (-171 poin) ke level 3,266. Nikkei ditutup naik tipis 0.26% (+25 pts) ke level 10,113. IHSG ditutup turun 0.5% (-11.29 poin) ke level 2,225. Saat awal perdagangan sesi kedua IHSG sempat menyentuh level terendah di 2,190. Namun pembukaan pasar Eropa yang positif berhasil membuat IHSG pulih dan akhirnya ditutup pada level 2,225.Menurut pendapat kami penurunan IHSG kemarin merupakan koreksi yang sehat setelah dua minggu mengalami rally. Laporan keuangan yang dibawah harapan pasar dijadikan pemicu aksi profit taking. Hal ini terbukti pulihnya IHSG menjelang penutupan sesi kedua seiring pembukaan positif bursa Eropa. Dari indikator teknikal seperti MACD terlihat pergerakan IHSG masih kuat. Kami melihat earning result dan data inflasi akan menjadi katalis bagi IHSG dalam perdagangan beberapa hari ke depan.Untuk hari ini kami proyeksikan IHSG akan bergerak dalam kisaran 2,196 – 2,247. Saham saham yang menjadi rekomendasi kami adalah Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-22,200, S-16,000), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-1,730) and Semen Gresik (SMGR, Buy, R-6,250, S-5,250)