Market View - 31 July 2009

Asian markets rose yesterday, rebounding from earlier declines, as better than expected results from Mitsubishi Electric and Honda Motor. Also comment from China central bank that they will control lending growth by using market tools instead of quantity controls gave investors their confidence back. Nikkei was up 0.51% (+51.97 pts) to 10,165 and Hangseng added 0.49% (+98.58 pts) to 20,234. JCI surged 3.25% (+72.32 pts) to 2,298 led by Bakrie’s shares and banking stocks. Bumi Resources (BUMI) surged 10.23% (+225 pts) after the company released its plan to sell $200 million of convertible bonds. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) advanced 6.08% (+225 pts) after the company posted its better than expected 1H result. US markets rose as companies such as Motorola Inc. and MasterCard. Inc. posted better-than-expected earning results and initial claims held below June levels. DJIA added 0.9% (+83.74 pts) to 9,154 and Nasdaq was up 0.8% (+16.54 pts) to 1,984. Initial claims last week rose 4.47% to 584,000 but it was still below June’s 600,000 average. We are still bullish on JCI as we said yesterday in our Daily Technical. Technial indicators such as MACD, stochastic, moving averages show that JCI is on its upward trend. Earning results, commodity and metal prices and inflation still become our catalyst in the next few trading days. Today we expect JCI is in its 2,245-2,325 trading range. Our picks for today are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Bank Mandiri (BMRI, Buy, R-4,275, S-3,600), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300) and Bumi Resources (BUMI, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,300).

Market View - 30 July 200c

Asian markets mostly ended in negative territory yesterday as investors sold their shares amid worse than expected earning results. A dissapointing US consumer confidence also became the negative catalyst for the markets. Hangseng fell 2.37% (-489 pts) to 20,135 while Shanghai plummeted 5% (-171 pts) to 3,266. Nikkei however was up 0.26% (+25 pts) to 10,113. JCI was slightly down by 0.5% (-11.29 pts) to 2,225. JCI touched its lowest at 2,190 in the start of the second session but positive opening from European markets cut JCI’s losses to ended higher at 2,225.  DJIA fell 26 pts (-0.3%) to 9,070 and Nasdaq also fell 7.75 pts (-0.4%) to 1,967 as durable orders dropped 2.5% in July, worse than the 0.6% drop market expected. The positive catalyst came from the Federal Reserve which in its beige book mentioned that the pace of economic decline slowed in June and July, indicating the worst of US downturn was closer to an end. From Japan, factory output rose 2.4% in June.  In our opinion yesterday was just another healthy correction. Technial indicator such as MACD still shows that JCI is on its upward trend. Earning results and inflation still become our catalyst. Positive review from the Fed and Japanese factory output should impact positively to our market today. We expect JCI will be moving in a 2,196 to 2,247 range. Our picks for today are Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam(PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-22,250, S-16,000), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-1,730) and Semen Gresik (SMGR, Buy, R-6,250, S-5,250).

Market View - 30 July 2009

Sebagian besar pasar di Asia kemarin ditutup dalam teritori negatif seiring dengan aksi investor yang melepas saham mereka akibat laporan keuangan sejumlah perusahaan di China dan Hongkong yang berada dibawah ekspektasi pasar. Selain itu memburuknya data consumer confidence Amerika juga mendorong pasar melakukan aksi profit taking. Bursa Hangseng jatuh 2.37% (-489 poin) ke level 20,135 dan bursa Shanghai anjlok 5% (-171 poin) ke level 3,266. Nikkei ditutup naik tipis 0.26% (+25 pts) ke level 10,113. IHSG ditutup turun 0.5% (-11.29 poin) ke level 2,225. Saat awal perdagangan sesi kedua IHSG sempat menyentuh level terendah di 2,190. Namun pembukaan pasar Eropa yang positif berhasil membuat IHSG pulih dan akhirnya ditutup pada level 2,225.Menurut pendapat kami penurunan IHSG kemarin merupakan koreksi yang sehat setelah dua minggu mengalami rally. Laporan keuangan yang dibawah harapan pasar dijadikan pemicu aksi profit taking. Hal ini terbukti pulihnya IHSG menjelang penutupan sesi kedua seiring pembukaan positif bursa Eropa. Dari indikator teknikal seperti MACD terlihat pergerakan IHSG masih kuat. Kami melihat earning result dan data inflasi akan menjadi katalis bagi IHSG dalam perdagangan beberapa hari ke depan.Untuk hari ini kami proyeksikan IHSG akan bergerak dalam kisaran 2,196 – 2,247. Saham saham yang menjadi rekomendasi kami adalah Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA, Buy, R-14,000, S-11,000), BRI (BBRI, Buy, R-7,800, S-6,500), Astra Agro Lestari (AALI, Buy, R-22,200, S-16,000), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-1,730) and Semen Gresik (SMGR, Buy, R-6,250, S-5,250)