MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1796-1865
After being in negative territory for almost the whole trading day, JCI finally managed a 0.6% gain (+11.28 points) closed at 1842. Investors took profit especially in the first session while in the second one news from regional market, especially from europe, gave a positive sentimen to JCI. Reports that China’s fixed-asset investment rose better-than-expected and Britain’s house-price slump eased became the catalyst. In asia market, Hong Kong, China, India & Vietnam also posted gains while others are closed in red.
DJIA finally has managed to closed in positive territory, up 50.34 points (+0.6%) to 8469 while Nasdaq and S&P 500 down. General Motors fell almost 21% to $1.15 amid its plan to file for bankruptcy. Oil reached its 3 months highest to $58.85/bl. Tonight US investors are waiting for April retail sales data. Markets expect a range between minus 0.2% to 0%, comparing to -1.2% March data.
Today we forecast JCI trading range are between 1857-1892, which we think Bakrie-related stocks such as BUMI, DEWA, ELTY, ENRG still become the main driver of JCI. Our top picks for today are BUMI (Speculative Buy, R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Speculative Buy, R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Hold, R-2950, S-2500), ELSA (Speculative Buy, R-410, S-340) dan PTBA (Hold, R-12100, S-9900).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price : 2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss : 1750
Support : 1570
Not a day for taking a breath. We’re also running out of breath to tell about BUMI. Yesterday it was closed exactly at our target price & resistance level. From technical point of view we saw a divergence in picture. We still see a strong up trend for BUMI, yet its decreasing volume worries us. However, we still recommend BUMI. Should today BUMI once again beat our resistance, then our next resistance would be 3300.
TLKM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :5900
Support : 7100
If we look the past, we could see an interesting pattern about TLKM. Everytime its price touches down its MA20 or MA50 then TLKM would rebound. Yesterday we saw this pattern. Should the pattern repeats itself? Therefore we recommend a Speculative Buy on TLKM.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2100
Support : 2500
Posted a 100 points gain to 2725 yet its volume decrasing. However we think PGAS will be trading inside its support-resistance level. We still positive on PGAS for mid to long term view. But for day trader we recommend a Hold for today. We still wait for volume confirmation.
PTBA – Hold
Target Price : 12100
Resistance : 12100
Cut Loss : 8500
Support : 9900
Two days ago we saw a doji pattern. Yesterday we saw a hanging man pattern while PTBA closed at 10500, lost 100 points. Decreasing volume while prices are rising put us on alert. For today’s trade we position ourselves a little bit conservative. Hold on PTBA should be our reasonable recommendation.
ELSA – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 310
Support : 340
Back into our top picks radar. Yesterday ELSA once again posted a 35 points gain to closed at 385. What’s caught our attention is its spike volume. We think news about its shares sale still be the catalyst. Our trading target for ELSA is 410.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Monday, May 11, 2009
Daily Review May 12, 2009
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1857-1892
JCI was very strong in the first session yesterday but went into negative territory in the second session. Having touch the highest 1891 JCI plummeted to its lowest 1827, in which finally JCI was closed at 1830, down 31.79 points (-1.71%). Profit takings and an undecided regional market were the main catalyst for JCI yesterday. Nikkei was up 0.2% to 9451 while Hang Seng was down 1.7% to 17087.
DJIA lost 155.88 points last night and ended at 8418 while Nasdaq was down 7.76 points to 1731. Profit taking and banking stocks were the main drivers that dragged down US market. U.S. Bancorp, BB&T and Capital One announced to issue stock to pay the government back for bailout funds. In the mean time, General Motors CEO Fritz Henderson mentioned about the probability GM to file for bankruptcy.
Today we should still hope for another profit taking day. Our JCI trading range would be 1857 to 1892. We think the market has already run out of a positive catalyst. Our top picks for today are BUMI (Hold, R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Sell, R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Sell, R-2950, S-2500), ANTM (Hold, R-1920, S-1470) dan PTBA (Buy, R-12100, S-9900).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1600
Support : 1570
Yesterday BUMI was closed at 2000 which is near our 2175 target price. In fact, BUMI has already touched 2150 level before retraced to 2000. On technical view, we start seeing an exhausted move on BUMI. Therefore we recommend Hold on BUMI to see what this stock is going to do in the next couples of days. Don’t be too agressive.
TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :5900
Support : 7100
Down for a reason. TLKM has been in negative territory for three days in a row. It turns out because of less-than-expected 1Q09 result in which net profit down 23,4%. Three candle sticks formations shows a very bearish trend. Therefore we recommend Sell on TLKM.
PGAS – Sell
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2100
Support : 2500
We still see yesterday’s closing price of PGAS is just another profit taking. But lower high in the last three trading days is a worry to us. In the long term we’re bullish on PGAS but for the moment we think profit taking pressure is very high. We recommend a more conservative moves on PGAS. Take profit as anybody else.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 12100
Resistance : 12100
Cut Loss : 8500
Support : 9900
One of the stock that showed positive movement yesterday. We set our trading target of PTBA at 12100, which also serve as its resistance. We see a support at 9900. However we strick a cut loss level at 8500. Profit taking pressure is in the air. Don’t be too aggresive on PTBA. Besides, we’re afraid we see a doji formation yesterday.
ANTM – Hold
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1530
Support : 1470
Decrasing volume on higher price and closed unchanged after hit highest at 2125 is not a bullish sign. Our main catalyst for ANTM is nickel price. We should see what happen on nickle price to come to conclusion of ANTM. However, yesterday closing price at 1910 is very near of our 1920 target price. Having said that, we recommend a Hold for ANTM today.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Today’s Range : 1857-1892
JCI was very strong in the first session yesterday but went into negative territory in the second session. Having touch the highest 1891 JCI plummeted to its lowest 1827, in which finally JCI was closed at 1830, down 31.79 points (-1.71%). Profit takings and an undecided regional market were the main catalyst for JCI yesterday. Nikkei was up 0.2% to 9451 while Hang Seng was down 1.7% to 17087.
DJIA lost 155.88 points last night and ended at 8418 while Nasdaq was down 7.76 points to 1731. Profit taking and banking stocks were the main drivers that dragged down US market. U.S. Bancorp, BB&T and Capital One announced to issue stock to pay the government back for bailout funds. In the mean time, General Motors CEO Fritz Henderson mentioned about the probability GM to file for bankruptcy.
Today we should still hope for another profit taking day. Our JCI trading range would be 1857 to 1892. We think the market has already run out of a positive catalyst. Our top picks for today are BUMI (Hold, R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Sell, R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Sell, R-2950, S-2500), ANTM (Hold, R-1920, S-1470) dan PTBA (Buy, R-12100, S-9900).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1600
Support : 1570
Yesterday BUMI was closed at 2000 which is near our 2175 target price. In fact, BUMI has already touched 2150 level before retraced to 2000. On technical view, we start seeing an exhausted move on BUMI. Therefore we recommend Hold on BUMI to see what this stock is going to do in the next couples of days. Don’t be too agressive.
TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :5900
Support : 7100
Down for a reason. TLKM has been in negative territory for three days in a row. It turns out because of less-than-expected 1Q09 result in which net profit down 23,4%. Three candle sticks formations shows a very bearish trend. Therefore we recommend Sell on TLKM.
PGAS – Sell
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2100
Support : 2500
We still see yesterday’s closing price of PGAS is just another profit taking. But lower high in the last three trading days is a worry to us. In the long term we’re bullish on PGAS but for the moment we think profit taking pressure is very high. We recommend a more conservative moves on PGAS. Take profit as anybody else.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price : 12100
Resistance : 12100
Cut Loss : 8500
Support : 9900
One of the stock that showed positive movement yesterday. We set our trading target of PTBA at 12100, which also serve as its resistance. We see a support at 9900. However we strick a cut loss level at 8500. Profit taking pressure is in the air. Don’t be too aggresive on PTBA. Besides, we’re afraid we see a doji formation yesterday.
ANTM – Hold
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1530
Support : 1470
Decrasing volume on higher price and closed unchanged after hit highest at 2125 is not a bullish sign. Our main catalyst for ANTM is nickel price. We should see what happen on nickle price to come to conclusion of ANTM. However, yesterday closing price at 1910 is very near of our 1920 target price. Having said that, we recommend a Hold for ANTM today.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Daily Review May 11, 2009
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1821-1883
Last week JCI posted another 7% gain, in which JCI was opened at 1729 (4/5) and closed at 1862 level (8/5). Bakrie-related stocks, especially BUMI, became the main driver of JCI strong movement. BUMI itself last week posted a 24% gains in which on Friday it was closed at 1930. Domestic economic factor that influence capital market was the decision by Bank Indonesia to reduce BI Rate to 7.25% level. And from US, the result of the 19 big financial institutions stress test became the catalyst for the week.
DJIA was up 164 points last Friday to 8574 after investors were confidence with US financial institutions. The stress banks results was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile from unemployment data showed a slight recovery in which April non-farm payroll reduced by 539,000 (better than March -663k) and unemployment rate reached 8.9%. Combined with initial claims data which published the day before, these data showed that the economy is on their way to recovery.
For this week we think there’s a moderate probability for correction. Our indicators has stated an overbought signal. We also saw BUMI last Friday cannot continue its rally; in which BUMI was down 1.5% on that day. Besides, all catalyst such as 1Q09 results, US stress banks tests, economics data has been poured out. Next data we’ve been looking for would be 2Q09 results. Our JCI trading range for today is 1821-1883. Our recommendations for today are Sell on BUMI (R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (R-8000, S-7100), Hold PGAS (R-2950, S-2500) & Speculative Buy on ANTM (R-1920, S-1470), TINS (R-2400, S-1760).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570
On last Friday BUMI was closed at 1930, down 30 points. After in two days trying to break its 2175 resistance, we saw markets start selling at that level. We see 2000 level will be a very crucial. Markets will try to break it above. At this level, we recommend to hold on BUMI. Wait until correction to collect BUMI at lower level price.
TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
We see TLKM price try to move back to its MA 50. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. But for a while we recommend a sell on TLKM, wait until it really touches its MA50.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500
From technical view we’re still bullish on PGAS. Though it’s not as volatile as BUMI, we see PGAS is trying to reach its 2950 resistance level. Technical indicators such as OBV, MACD support this notion. We recommend PGAS with a 2950 target price. From last Friday’s closing price, there’s still a 8% potential gain.
TINS – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 2400
Resistance : 2400
Cut Loss : 1625
Support : 1760
Last minutes rally. That’s what happened on TINS last Friday. Fundamentally, strong tin price should be a catalist for TINS to surge 14.4% to 2025. Technically, last week rally was a bit worry. Indicators like MACD and volume showed a bearish divergence. Also last minutes rally should raise a questions. However, we think strong tin price still be a good reason for TINS. We give a speculative buy on TINS with cautions.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
Identical twins with TINS yesterday. Surged 10.4% in the last minutes rally. But we have several indicators that contradict to this rally. (1) volume decrasing; (2) MACD up; (3) OBV up; (4) stochastic overbought. We still give a speculative buy on ANTM with cautions.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading only.
Today’s Range : 1821-1883
Last week JCI posted another 7% gain, in which JCI was opened at 1729 (4/5) and closed at 1862 level (8/5). Bakrie-related stocks, especially BUMI, became the main driver of JCI strong movement. BUMI itself last week posted a 24% gains in which on Friday it was closed at 1930. Domestic economic factor that influence capital market was the decision by Bank Indonesia to reduce BI Rate to 7.25% level. And from US, the result of the 19 big financial institutions stress test became the catalyst for the week.
DJIA was up 164 points last Friday to 8574 after investors were confidence with US financial institutions. The stress banks results was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile from unemployment data showed a slight recovery in which April non-farm payroll reduced by 539,000 (better than March -663k) and unemployment rate reached 8.9%. Combined with initial claims data which published the day before, these data showed that the economy is on their way to recovery.
For this week we think there’s a moderate probability for correction. Our indicators has stated an overbought signal. We also saw BUMI last Friday cannot continue its rally; in which BUMI was down 1.5% on that day. Besides, all catalyst such as 1Q09 results, US stress banks tests, economics data has been poured out. Next data we’ve been looking for would be 2Q09 results. Our JCI trading range for today is 1821-1883. Our recommendations for today are Sell on BUMI (R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (R-8000, S-7100), Hold PGAS (R-2950, S-2500) & Speculative Buy on ANTM (R-1920, S-1470), TINS (R-2400, S-1760).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570
On last Friday BUMI was closed at 1930, down 30 points. After in two days trying to break its 2175 resistance, we saw markets start selling at that level. We see 2000 level will be a very crucial. Markets will try to break it above. At this level, we recommend to hold on BUMI. Wait until correction to collect BUMI at lower level price.
TLKM – Sell
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
We see TLKM price try to move back to its MA 50. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. But for a while we recommend a sell on TLKM, wait until it really touches its MA50.
PGAS – Hold
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500
From technical view we’re still bullish on PGAS. Though it’s not as volatile as BUMI, we see PGAS is trying to reach its 2950 resistance level. Technical indicators such as OBV, MACD support this notion. We recommend PGAS with a 2950 target price. From last Friday’s closing price, there’s still a 8% potential gain.
TINS – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 2400
Resistance : 2400
Cut Loss : 1625
Support : 1760
Last minutes rally. That’s what happened on TINS last Friday. Fundamentally, strong tin price should be a catalist for TINS to surge 14.4% to 2025. Technically, last week rally was a bit worry. Indicators like MACD and volume showed a bearish divergence. Also last minutes rally should raise a questions. However, we think strong tin price still be a good reason for TINS. We give a speculative buy on TINS with cautions.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
Identical twins with TINS yesterday. Surged 10.4% in the last minutes rally. But we have several indicators that contradict to this rally. (1) volume decrasing; (2) MACD up; (3) OBV up; (4) stochastic overbought. We still give a speculative buy on ANTM with cautions.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading only.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Daily Review May 08, 2009
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1806-1854
Optimism not only visited ISX but also regional market. Nikkei was up 4.5% while Hang Seng up 2.3%. Our beloved JCI yesterday gain 1.7% (30.5 points) to 1828. BUMI once again became the darling. In the first session BUMI basically moved in sideways but flying to the moon in the second session. BUMI transaction value reached Rp 2.4 trillion or 27% of total ISX transaction (Rp 8.9 trillion). Anticipation of the result of US bank test still becomes the catalist of global market.
Investors sell on news last night after the Federal Reserved announced its stress test results. DJIA was down 102.43 points (-1.2%) to 8409 while Nasdaq down 2.4% to 1716. Ten out of 19 financial institutions need additional capital of $75 billion. Amongst them are Bank of America needs $33.9B, Wells Fargo $13.7B, Citigroup $5.5B & Morgan Stanley $1.8B. Banks that are considered not needing additional capital are JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sach Group, American Express, Capital One Financial & MetLife Inc. Meanwhile, Initial Claims for unemployment down to 601,000 (previous 631,000) and Productivity for 1Q09 rose 0.8% (4Q08 -0.4%).
Today we projected for JCI with trading range of 1806-1854. We are opened to profit taking since it’s been quite a week rally, sell on news of the stress banks result & it’s Friday. Catalyst for up trend would be from commodities & metals stocks (oil, nickel & tin surged last night) Our recommendation for today would be BUMI (Buy; R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Hold; R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Buy; R-2950, S-2500), ELSA (Hold; R-410, S-300) & ANTM (Buy; R-1920, S-1470).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Profit Taking/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570
Another marvelous day for BUMI’s lovers. Just like two days ago, yesterday BUMI mostly moved flat in the first session but shoot up in the second session. BUMI moved from lowest 1810 to 1960, up 10.7%. Looking at its volume, we get confirmation of its move. But once again, anything can happen to BUMI. We still maintain our speculative buy on BUMI with 2175 target price.
TLKM – Hold
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level. For the mean time we put a hold on TLKM. But in the mid to long run we’re positive about TLKM. Our trading target price would be 8000.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500
After breaking its 2600 resistance we think PGAS took a short break. Yesterday it was down 100 points to 2675. We should see whether this is just a pullback or else. From the volume analysis we still see an uptrend on PGAS. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.
ELSA – Speculative Buy/Profit Taking
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300
After surged 9% two days ago, yesterday ELSA closed unmoved at 345. We could think of two reasons. (1) investors are taking profit on news; (2) investors were too busy on BUMI. News about ELSA has been out such as its dividen announcement, its upcoming projects for FY09. The only think investors are waiting is confirmation about ELSA’s shares sale. For a short term trading we think should take a profit, but for those with longer term we still recommend a speculative buy.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
Strong nickel price in international market boost ANTM price to 1730 yesterday. We still set a speculative buy on ANTM. However we find a less encouraging pattern from ANTM chart. (1) yesterday gap could become ‘an island’; (2) decreasing volume while price spike. Don’t too aggressive on ANTM.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Today’s Range : 1806-1854
Optimism not only visited ISX but also regional market. Nikkei was up 4.5% while Hang Seng up 2.3%. Our beloved JCI yesterday gain 1.7% (30.5 points) to 1828. BUMI once again became the darling. In the first session BUMI basically moved in sideways but flying to the moon in the second session. BUMI transaction value reached Rp 2.4 trillion or 27% of total ISX transaction (Rp 8.9 trillion). Anticipation of the result of US bank test still becomes the catalist of global market.
Investors sell on news last night after the Federal Reserved announced its stress test results. DJIA was down 102.43 points (-1.2%) to 8409 while Nasdaq down 2.4% to 1716. Ten out of 19 financial institutions need additional capital of $75 billion. Amongst them are Bank of America needs $33.9B, Wells Fargo $13.7B, Citigroup $5.5B & Morgan Stanley $1.8B. Banks that are considered not needing additional capital are JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sach Group, American Express, Capital One Financial & MetLife Inc. Meanwhile, Initial Claims for unemployment down to 601,000 (previous 631,000) and Productivity for 1Q09 rose 0.8% (4Q08 -0.4%).
Today we projected for JCI with trading range of 1806-1854. We are opened to profit taking since it’s been quite a week rally, sell on news of the stress banks result & it’s Friday. Catalyst for up trend would be from commodities & metals stocks (oil, nickel & tin surged last night) Our recommendation for today would be BUMI (Buy; R-2175, S-1570), TLKM (Hold; R-8000, S-7100), PGAS (Buy; R-2950, S-2500), ELSA (Hold; R-410, S-300) & ANTM (Buy; R-1920, S-1470).
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Profit Taking/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1570
Support : 1570
Another marvelous day for BUMI’s lovers. Just like two days ago, yesterday BUMI mostly moved flat in the first session but shoot up in the second session. BUMI moved from lowest 1810 to 1960, up 10.7%. Looking at its volume, we get confirmation of its move. But once again, anything can happen to BUMI. We still maintain our speculative buy on BUMI with 2175 target price.
TLKM – Hold
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level. For the mean time we put a hold on TLKM. But in the mid to long run we’re positive about TLKM. Our trading target price would be 8000.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2150
Support : 2500
After breaking its 2600 resistance we think PGAS took a short break. Yesterday it was down 100 points to 2675. We should see whether this is just a pullback or else. From the volume analysis we still see an uptrend on PGAS. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.
ELSA – Speculative Buy/Profit Taking
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300
After surged 9% two days ago, yesterday ELSA closed unmoved at 345. We could think of two reasons. (1) investors are taking profit on news; (2) investors were too busy on BUMI. News about ELSA has been out such as its dividen announcement, its upcoming projects for FY09. The only think investors are waiting is confirmation about ELSA’s shares sale. For a short term trading we think should take a profit, but for those with longer term we still recommend a speculative buy.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
Strong nickel price in international market boost ANTM price to 1730 yesterday. We still set a speculative buy on ANTM. However we find a less encouraging pattern from ANTM chart. (1) yesterday gap could become ‘an island’; (2) decreasing volume while price spike. Don’t too aggressive on ANTM.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Daily Review May 07, 2009
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1761-1817
Full of uncertainty in the first session but very strong in the second one. That’s what happened at JCI yesterday. In the first session, JCI jumped up and down between negative & positive territory in a 1761-1783 range. But once in the second session strong movement start coming, lead by ELSA, TLKM, PGAS, ANTM and especially BUMI. In the first session BUMI is all but positive. But in the middle of second session BUMI rose from 1620 to 1770 (+5.4%). JCI itself posted a 1.48% gain (+26.26 points), closed at 1798. In the regional market, STI jumped 5% after a better-than-expected results from UOB & OCBC earnings.
Indication that the banks stress results would be announced tomorrow in which banks may not require much additional capital has boosted investors confidence in US market last night. DJIA was up 1.2% to 8512 while Nasdaq closed at 1759 (+0.3%). American Express, JPMorgan Chase & Bank of New York Mellon Corp were reported successfully passed the the test. Another positive economic data was the ADP National Employment Report showed that April private sector employment fell by 491,000, much better than the 708,000 job lost in March.
For today’s trading we forecast JCI will move in a 1761-1817 range. Results of stress banks in United States will be watched by investors, though we think whatever the result our market still show some upward movement. Our top five stocks pick would be ELSA, BUMI, PGAS, TLKM & ANTM. Watch for metals stocks as nickel up 5.8% & tin up 6.7% last night.
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1420
Support : 1570
What can you say about BUMI then. Another comeback from lowest 1620 to highest 1770 yesterday, BUMI finally managed to closed at its 1770 highest, surge +5.4%. Strong indicator that the markets is trying to fly BUMI. We still manage our trading target price 2175 & up grade our support to 1570. We recommend speculative buy or hold for BUMI.
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
TLKM yesterday has became one of the supporter for JCI closing in positive territory. TLKM itself gain 150 point to 7850. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2250
Support : 2500
PGAS has managed to break up our 2600 resistance yesterday with strong volume. Therefore we are very optimistic about this stock moving toward our next resistance and target price 2950. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.
ELSA – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300
Back to ELSA. Yesterday posted a 9.5% gain with strong volume. News that Pertamina is seriously considering to buy 37.15% ELSA shares became the catalist. Up to now, Pertamina has already had 41% stake at ELSA. In the coming days we’re still be hearing news about this corporate action. Our target price would be 410.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
ANTM yesterday rose 7.8% to 1650, cross above its 1620 resistance. Hence we’re up grading our resistance & target price to 1920. Yet we’re still maintain our support at 1470 to be a bit conservative. News that nickel price at after-hours trading in London rose to $12,230 (+2.8%) became the catalist for ANTM rally. For the up coming days, we’re about to see ANTM moves in accordance to nickel prices. Speculative buy on ANTM.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Today’s Range : 1761-1817
Full of uncertainty in the first session but very strong in the second one. That’s what happened at JCI yesterday. In the first session, JCI jumped up and down between negative & positive territory in a 1761-1783 range. But once in the second session strong movement start coming, lead by ELSA, TLKM, PGAS, ANTM and especially BUMI. In the first session BUMI is all but positive. But in the middle of second session BUMI rose from 1620 to 1770 (+5.4%). JCI itself posted a 1.48% gain (+26.26 points), closed at 1798. In the regional market, STI jumped 5% after a better-than-expected results from UOB & OCBC earnings.
Indication that the banks stress results would be announced tomorrow in which banks may not require much additional capital has boosted investors confidence in US market last night. DJIA was up 1.2% to 8512 while Nasdaq closed at 1759 (+0.3%). American Express, JPMorgan Chase & Bank of New York Mellon Corp were reported successfully passed the the test. Another positive economic data was the ADP National Employment Report showed that April private sector employment fell by 491,000, much better than the 708,000 job lost in March.
For today’s trading we forecast JCI will move in a 1761-1817 range. Results of stress banks in United States will be watched by investors, though we think whatever the result our market still show some upward movement. Our top five stocks pick would be ELSA, BUMI, PGAS, TLKM & ANTM. Watch for metals stocks as nickel up 5.8% & tin up 6.7% last night.
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold/Speculative Buy
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1420
Support : 1570
What can you say about BUMI then. Another comeback from lowest 1620 to highest 1770 yesterday, BUMI finally managed to closed at its 1770 highest, surge +5.4%. Strong indicator that the markets is trying to fly BUMI. We still manage our trading target price 2175 & up grade our support to 1570. We recommend speculative buy or hold for BUMI.
TLKM – Buy
Target Price :8000
Resistance : 8000
Cut Loss :6250
Support : 7100
TLKM yesterday has became one of the supporter for JCI closing in positive territory. TLKM itself gain 150 point to 7850. When we look at TLKM chart we’ll see a pattern that everytime its price touch its MA20 or MA50 then it would rebound. In the last two days TLKM price touched its MA20, we’re hoping it would repeat its pattern and move toward its strong resistance at 8000. If not, just make sure to cut loss at 6250 level.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2950
Cut Loss : 2250
Support : 2500
PGAS has managed to break up our 2600 resistance yesterday with strong volume. Therefore we are very optimistic about this stock moving toward our next resistance and target price 2950. We highly recommend a buy on PGAS.
ELSA – Speculative Buy
Target Price : 410
Resistance : 410
Cut Loss : 280
Support : 300
Back to ELSA. Yesterday posted a 9.5% gain with strong volume. News that Pertamina is seriously considering to buy 37.15% ELSA shares became the catalist. Up to now, Pertamina has already had 41% stake at ELSA. In the coming days we’re still be hearing news about this corporate action. Our target price would be 410.
ANTM – Speculative Buy
Target Price :1920
Resistance : 1920
Cut Loss : 1320
Support : 1470
ANTM yesterday rose 7.8% to 1650, cross above its 1620 resistance. Hence we’re up grading our resistance & target price to 1920. Yet we’re still maintain our support at 1470 to be a bit conservative. News that nickel price at after-hours trading in London rose to $12,230 (+2.8%) became the catalist for ANTM rally. For the up coming days, we’re about to see ANTM moves in accordance to nickel prices. Speculative buy on ANTM.
DISCLAIMER ON. The followings are not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell stocks. Those are for my personal trading purpose only.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Daily Review May 06, 2009
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1784-1829
After five days in a row posting gains, yesterday finally JCI closed in negative territory at 1772, down 16.07 points (-0.90%). Profit takings in blue chips such as ISAT, BBRI, TLKM & PTBA dragged index down. Even BUMI cannot hold its yesterday’s highest at 1770, in which at the closing time BUMI closed at 1680. In banking stocks, markets took profit after Bank Indonesia announced its BI Rate cut to 7.25%. This is a sell on news act. The Jakarta Finance Index fell 2.8% yesterday and was the worst sector performance at JCI. Palm oil July futures in Malaysia Derivatives Exchange down 2% to 2647 ringgit in the concern of over supply stockpiles. CPO related stocks such as SGRO, AALI, LSIP suffered because of this news.
US market ended lower last night as investors booked their paper profits. DJIA lost 16.09 points to end at 8410 while Nasdaq lost 9.44 points to 1754. The Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the economy will bottom & start to rebound later this year but the recovery process will be slow & choppy. Meanwhile, it is reported that 10 of the 19 banks may require additional cpaital. Speculations amongst the 10 are Bank of America, Citigroup & Wells Fargo.
Today we forecast the urge of profit taking is still in the air. Our JCI range would be 1784- 1829. Be vary concern of 1785 level because we think this is a turning point level. If the index moves below this level, we should expect the correction continue to 1657. We recommend our investors to take profit and be more concervative. We see a fatigue in the market. However, for mid to long-term horizon we still recommend BUMI, PGAS, PTBA, AALI & ADRO
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1300
Support : 1200
Even BUMI cannot hold its highest price level yesterday. After reaching 1770 level, BUMI finally closed at 1680. Profit taking was the cause of this. Investors feel like to cash out their paper profit on BUMI. We think in the short run there would be another profit taking. From stochastic point of view, we should expect a momentary down trend. We recommend to hold on BUMI, collect again once its Stochastic shows oversold.
PTBA – Hold
Target Price :10500
Resistance : 10500
Cut Loss :7800
Support : 9000
Even a strong blue chip cannot hold on once a profit taking happen. From technical view, we see a momentary down side movement due to overbought. But for mid term horizon we still recommend PTBA. Same as BUMI, wait for a while until its Stochastic shows oversold signal. We still positive about our trading target price at 10500 for PTBA.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2600
Cut Loss : 2050
Support : 2500
PGAS closed exactly at our 2600 resistance level, after touched its highest at 2650. Seeing its volume spike, we still confidence PGAS will continue its rally today; unless some strong profit taking evaporates its strong momentum. We recommend a buy for PGAS with caution today. Be careful for profit taking.
AALI – Hold
Target Price : 18300
Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 14500
Support : 16000
Profit taking, overbought & correction on palm futures caused AALI fell 100 point to 18000 yesterday. News that July palm oil futures at Malaysia Derivatives Exchange down 2% became the catatlist for AALI (and its peers) yesterday. For the meantime, we downgrade our daily recommendation on AALI from Buy to Hold. However, we still positive of our 18300 trading target price.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300
Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss : 910
Support : 1000
Markets still waiting for the confirmation on who’s going to buy ADRO stakes still be the main catalist for this stock. Though we’re not being conformed yet, but it’s been said in the street that the aquisition price should be aroung 1100-1200. However, we’re still very positive on ADRO. Therefore our recommendation still a Buy with 1300 price target for short term trading.
Today’s Range : 1784-1829
After five days in a row posting gains, yesterday finally JCI closed in negative territory at 1772, down 16.07 points (-0.90%). Profit takings in blue chips such as ISAT, BBRI, TLKM & PTBA dragged index down. Even BUMI cannot hold its yesterday’s highest at 1770, in which at the closing time BUMI closed at 1680. In banking stocks, markets took profit after Bank Indonesia announced its BI Rate cut to 7.25%. This is a sell on news act. The Jakarta Finance Index fell 2.8% yesterday and was the worst sector performance at JCI. Palm oil July futures in Malaysia Derivatives Exchange down 2% to 2647 ringgit in the concern of over supply stockpiles. CPO related stocks such as SGRO, AALI, LSIP suffered because of this news.
US market ended lower last night as investors booked their paper profits. DJIA lost 16.09 points to end at 8410 while Nasdaq lost 9.44 points to 1754. The Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the economy will bottom & start to rebound later this year but the recovery process will be slow & choppy. Meanwhile, it is reported that 10 of the 19 banks may require additional cpaital. Speculations amongst the 10 are Bank of America, Citigroup & Wells Fargo.
Today we forecast the urge of profit taking is still in the air. Our JCI range would be 1784- 1829. Be vary concern of 1785 level because we think this is a turning point level. If the index moves below this level, we should expect the correction continue to 1657. We recommend our investors to take profit and be more concervative. We see a fatigue in the market. However, for mid to long-term horizon we still recommend BUMI, PGAS, PTBA, AALI & ADRO
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Hold
Target Price :2175
Resistance : 2175
Cut Loss :1300
Support : 1200
Even BUMI cannot hold its highest price level yesterday. After reaching 1770 level, BUMI finally closed at 1680. Profit taking was the cause of this. Investors feel like to cash out their paper profit on BUMI. We think in the short run there would be another profit taking. From stochastic point of view, we should expect a momentary down trend. We recommend to hold on BUMI, collect again once its Stochastic shows oversold.
PTBA – Hold
Target Price :10500
Resistance : 10500
Cut Loss :7800
Support : 9000
Even a strong blue chip cannot hold on once a profit taking happen. From technical view, we see a momentary down side movement due to overbought. But for mid term horizon we still recommend PTBA. Same as BUMI, wait for a while until its Stochastic shows oversold signal. We still positive about our trading target price at 10500 for PTBA.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Resistance : 2600
Cut Loss : 2050
Support : 2500
PGAS closed exactly at our 2600 resistance level, after touched its highest at 2650. Seeing its volume spike, we still confidence PGAS will continue its rally today; unless some strong profit taking evaporates its strong momentum. We recommend a buy for PGAS with caution today. Be careful for profit taking.
AALI – Hold
Target Price : 18300
Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 14500
Support : 16000
Profit taking, overbought & correction on palm futures caused AALI fell 100 point to 18000 yesterday. News that July palm oil futures at Malaysia Derivatives Exchange down 2% became the catatlist for AALI (and its peers) yesterday. For the meantime, we downgrade our daily recommendation on AALI from Buy to Hold. However, we still positive of our 18300 trading target price.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300
Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss : 910
Support : 1000
Markets still waiting for the confirmation on who’s going to buy ADRO stakes still be the main catalist for this stock. Though we’re not being conformed yet, but it’s been said in the street that the aquisition price should be aroung 1100-1200. However, we’re still very positive on ADRO. Therefore our recommendation still a Buy with 1300 price target for short term trading.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Daily Review May 05, 2009
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s Range : 1733-1825
JCI yesterday posted a significant gain, in which up 3.39% (+58.56 points) to 1788 level. This strong movement in accord with regional market. Markets welcome ASEAN+3 $120 billion foreign-currency reserve pool as a positive sign. Also, data of China April’s Purchasing Manager Index that surge to 53.5 level give markets something to cheer. JSX transaction reached Rp 6.2 trillion, advance 20% from last Friday value. Bakrie’s stocks, banking, commodities stocks lead the rally. BUMI gain 8.55%, USNP +10.71%, DEWA +9.45%, BMRI +3.51%, BBNI +6.06% and BBRI +7.68%. Besides those, PGAS also up 3% whila PTBA +6.56%.
DJIA gain 214.33 points (2.61%) closed at 8426.74 while Nasdaq also up 2.58% to 1763 last night after investors are positive by some better-than-expected economic results. March pending home sales index jumped 3.2% while construction spending rose 0.3%. Over the weekend, Warren Buffett made a commend that he thought the recession is coming to an end and no big banks will fail. His comment and several economics data makes investors are more confident.
Today we forecast JCI still in a positive territory. Our trading range should be 1733-1825. Our top picks still of commodities (CPO price surged 12.2% to US$830/ton yesterday), mining (commodities prices) & banking sectors (possibility of BI Rate cuts). Our recommendation to buy BUMI, AALI, ADRO, PTBA, PGAS.
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175
Cut Loss :1300
Resistance : 2175
Support : 1200
Yesterday BUMI’s trade value reached Rp 1.49 trillion, which is almost 24% share of total JSX value (Rp 6.12T). Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. Technically we see a strong support at 1570, but we upgrade our resistance to 2175. Our mid-term target would be 2175.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price :10500
Cut Loss :7800
Resistance : 10500
Support : 9000
Together with others commodities stocks, yesterday PTBA managed to gain 6.6% closed at 9750. This level has violated PTBA strong resistance at 9500. Considering its volume, we’re very positive today PTBA will post another gain if the total market moves into positive territory. We recommend PTBA a buy with our short term target price at 10500.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Cut Loss : 2050
Resistance : 2600
Support : 2500
PGAS has tried to break its 2600 resistance yesterday but failed. We should see any attempt today for there’s a positive momentum for commodities price. Should this resistance being broken, we set our target price at 2950. Considering high volume in the last three trading days, we still a positive movement on PGAS.
AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300
Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 14500
Support : 16000
Rising in CPO price has had a positive impact on AALI. Yesterday AALI once again posted a 5.2% gains, closed at 1810 which in fact near our 18300 target price. Today we expect AALI still continue its up trend movement amid CPO price. Should our 18300 has been reached, our next target price would be 22200.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300
Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss : 910
Support : 1000
Optimism in commodities prices and the hope of new investors once again surged ADRO price to 1140. Though we’re not being conformed yet, but it’s been said in the street that the aquisition price should be aroung 1100-1200. However, we’re still very positive on ADRO. Therefore our recommendation still a Buy with 1300 price target for short term trading.
Today’s Range : 1733-1825
JCI yesterday posted a significant gain, in which up 3.39% (+58.56 points) to 1788 level. This strong movement in accord with regional market. Markets welcome ASEAN+3 $120 billion foreign-currency reserve pool as a positive sign. Also, data of China April’s Purchasing Manager Index that surge to 53.5 level give markets something to cheer. JSX transaction reached Rp 6.2 trillion, advance 20% from last Friday value. Bakrie’s stocks, banking, commodities stocks lead the rally. BUMI gain 8.55%, USNP +10.71%, DEWA +9.45%, BMRI +3.51%, BBNI +6.06% and BBRI +7.68%. Besides those, PGAS also up 3% whila PTBA +6.56%.
DJIA gain 214.33 points (2.61%) closed at 8426.74 while Nasdaq also up 2.58% to 1763 last night after investors are positive by some better-than-expected economic results. March pending home sales index jumped 3.2% while construction spending rose 0.3%. Over the weekend, Warren Buffett made a commend that he thought the recession is coming to an end and no big banks will fail. His comment and several economics data makes investors are more confident.
Today we forecast JCI still in a positive territory. Our trading range should be 1733-1825. Our top picks still of commodities (CPO price surged 12.2% to US$830/ton yesterday), mining (commodities prices) & banking sectors (possibility of BI Rate cuts). Our recommendation to buy BUMI, AALI, ADRO, PTBA, PGAS.
TODAY'S TOP PICKS
BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175
Cut Loss :1300
Resistance : 2175
Support : 1200
Yesterday BUMI’s trade value reached Rp 1.49 trillion, which is almost 24% share of total JSX value (Rp 6.12T). Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. Technically we see a strong support at 1570, but we upgrade our resistance to 2175. Our mid-term target would be 2175.
PTBA – Buy
Target Price :10500
Cut Loss :7800
Resistance : 10500
Support : 9000
Together with others commodities stocks, yesterday PTBA managed to gain 6.6% closed at 9750. This level has violated PTBA strong resistance at 9500. Considering its volume, we’re very positive today PTBA will post another gain if the total market moves into positive territory. We recommend PTBA a buy with our short term target price at 10500.
PGAS – Buy
Target Price : 2950
Cut Loss : 2050
Resistance : 2600
Support : 2500
PGAS has tried to break its 2600 resistance yesterday but failed. We should see any attempt today for there’s a positive momentum for commodities price. Should this resistance being broken, we set our target price at 2950. Considering high volume in the last three trading days, we still a positive movement on PGAS.
AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300
Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 14500
Support : 16000
Rising in CPO price has had a positive impact on AALI. Yesterday AALI once again posted a 5.2% gains, closed at 1810 which in fact near our 18300 target price. Today we expect AALI still continue its up trend movement amid CPO price. Should our 18300 has been reached, our next target price would be 22200.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300
Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss : 910
Support : 1000
Optimism in commodities prices and the hope of new investors once again surged ADRO price to 1140. Though we’re not being conformed yet, but it’s been said in the street that the aquisition price should be aroung 1100-1200. However, we’re still very positive on ADRO. Therefore our recommendation still a Buy with 1300 price target for short term trading.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Daily Review May 04, 2009
Market Overview
Today’s Range : 1705-1752
JCI last Friday closed at 1729, not much difference from the day before. JCI only booked 6.2 points or 0.4%. There’re two main drivers of JCI last week. First, the announcement of inflation, in which on April posted a deflation of 0.31% (mom). Inflation for yoy +7.31% and ytd +0.05%. Another driver was the announcement of corporate first quarter result. ANTM’s 1Q09 profit down 87% from a year before to Rp 90 billion while PGAS’s FY08 profit down 45.5% to Rp 633.85 billion due to forex loss. ANTM down 4.2% (closed at 1370) & PGAS down 3.8% (2500).
Last week was an amazing week for JCI, in which it posted a 8% gains. On Monday (27/4) JCI opened at 1591 and closed on Friday (1/5) at 1729. April’s deflation data gave investors confidence for another BI Rate cuts. In the mean time, in US market DJIA also posted a 1% gain, opened at 8073 on Monday & closed on Friday at 8212. News about Chrysler filled a Chapter 11 & a rising in Consumer Confidence to 39.2 gave investors ideas that the deteriorating has slowed.
For today we forecast JCI will move in a 1705-1752 trading range. News about deflation & corporate 1Q08 still will be the main driver. Our top picks for today are BUMI (target price 2175), UNTR (9750), SGRO (1830), AALI (18300) & ADRO (1300). All given a buy recommendation except for SGRO which we encourage our investors to take profit.
Today’s Top Picks
BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 1570
Cut Loss :1210 Support : 1200
Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. There’s only one reason we recommend BUMI; simply because of the herd mentality. Meaning we buy BUMI because everybody buy it. We sell BUMI because everyone does it. As simple as that. No string attached. Technically we see a strong support at 1570. Our mid-term target would be 2175. Investors please be careful, the volatility, the risk in this stock is very high. Once something become wrong, don’t hesitate to cut your position. In the mean time, just enjoy the ride.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 9750
Cut Loss :7450 Support : 7550
Another 3.3% gain. In the last two days trading UNTR has booked 16% profits. Also in two days it broke its two resistance level; first at 8100 then at 9000. Our next resistance is 9750. However, the decreasing volume should be a warning to traders. But for mid-term view we still recommend a buy on UNTR. Our short-term target price woulde be 9750 while our mid-term target price is 10750.
SGRO – Take Profit
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1710
Cut Loss : 1340 Support : 1600
Slow but sure; that SGRO is all about. In the full month of April itself SGRO has gain 30% profit. The up-trend in CPO price has been a factor to SGRO movement. We still see a mid-term uptrend for SGRO. There’s a resistance at 1710; which has been tasted last Friday but failed back to 1680. Should this 1710 resistance being crossed above, we set our short-term target price at 1830. But amid weak weekly technical, we recommend to take profit first for SGRO.
AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300 Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 13700 Support : 16000
Another day for one of Astra related stock. Last Friday it’s time for AALI to surge quite high. It has finally crossed above its 16000 resistance level and closed at 17200. The increasing volume in the last three days showed a strong injection into AALI. We set our next target price and resistance at 18300. However, investors should expect a correction as traders book their profit.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300 Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss :850 Support : 1000
News San Miquel and others company to buy stake at ADRO keep boosting its price up to 1200, in which being said as the selling price. But we’re not confirm about this level. However, ADRO last Friday has crossed above its resistance level at 1000. We should test this level in the coming days. Should this last, we set our next resistance at 1300. From fundamental side, ADRO has reported its 1Q09 result; which it booked a Rp 1.14 trillion profit comparing to a Rp 12.5 billion loss at 1Q08. We recommend a buy on ADRO.
JCI last Friday closed at 1729, not much difference from the day before. JCI only booked 6.2 points or 0.4%. There’re two main drivers of JCI last week. First, the announcement of inflation, in which on April posted a deflation of 0.31% (mom). Inflation for yoy +7.31% and ytd +0.05%. Another driver was the announcement of corporate first quarter result. ANTM’s 1Q09 profit down 87% from a year before to Rp 90 billion while PGAS’s FY08 profit down 45.5% to Rp 633.85 billion due to forex loss. ANTM down 4.2% (closed at 1370) & PGAS down 3.8% (2500).
Last week was an amazing week for JCI, in which it posted a 8% gains. On Monday (27/4) JCI opened at 1591 and closed on Friday (1/5) at 1729. April’s deflation data gave investors confidence for another BI Rate cuts. In the mean time, in US market DJIA also posted a 1% gain, opened at 8073 on Monday & closed on Friday at 8212. News about Chrysler filled a Chapter 11 & a rising in Consumer Confidence to 39.2 gave investors ideas that the deteriorating has slowed.
For today we forecast JCI will move in a 1705-1752 trading range. News about deflation & corporate 1Q08 still will be the main driver. Our top picks for today are BUMI (target price 2175), UNTR (9750), SGRO (1830), AALI (18300) & ADRO (1300). All given a buy recommendation except for SGRO which we encourage our investors to take profit.
Today’s Top Picks
BUMI – Buy
Target Price :2175 Resistance : 1570
Cut Loss :1210 Support : 1200
Back to business that’s what they are. Once again BUMI becomes the darling of traders. There’s only one reason we recommend BUMI; simply because of the herd mentality. Meaning we buy BUMI because everybody buy it. We sell BUMI because everyone does it. As simple as that. No string attached. Technically we see a strong support at 1570. Our mid-term target would be 2175. Investors please be careful, the volatility, the risk in this stock is very high. Once something become wrong, don’t hesitate to cut your position. In the mean time, just enjoy the ride.
UNTR – Buy
Target Price :9750 Resistance : 9750
Cut Loss :7450 Support : 7550
Another 3.3% gain. In the last two days trading UNTR has booked 16% profits. Also in two days it broke its two resistance level; first at 8100 then at 9000. Our next resistance is 9750. However, the decreasing volume should be a warning to traders. But for mid-term view we still recommend a buy on UNTR. Our short-term target price woulde be 9750 while our mid-term target price is 10750.
SGRO – Take Profit
Target Price : 1830 Resistance : 1710
Cut Loss : 1340 Support : 1600
Slow but sure; that SGRO is all about. In the full month of April itself SGRO has gain 30% profit. The up-trend in CPO price has been a factor to SGRO movement. We still see a mid-term uptrend for SGRO. There’s a resistance at 1710; which has been tasted last Friday but failed back to 1680. Should this 1710 resistance being crossed above, we set our short-term target price at 1830. But amid weak weekly technical, we recommend to take profit first for SGRO.
AALI – Buy
Target Price : 18300 Resistance : 18300
Cut Loss : 13700 Support : 16000
Another day for one of Astra related stock. Last Friday it’s time for AALI to surge quite high. It has finally crossed above its 16000 resistance level and closed at 17200. The increasing volume in the last three days showed a strong injection into AALI. We set our next target price and resistance at 18300. However, investors should expect a correction as traders book their profit.
ADRO – Buy
Target Price :1300 Resistance : 1300
Cut Loss :850 Support : 1000
News San Miquel and others company to buy stake at ADRO keep boosting its price up to 1200, in which being said as the selling price. But we’re not confirm about this level. However, ADRO last Friday has crossed above its resistance level at 1000. We should test this level in the coming days. Should this last, we set our next resistance at 1300. From fundamental side, ADRO has reported its 1Q09 result; which it booked a Rp 1.14 trillion profit comparing to a Rp 12.5 billion loss at 1Q08. We recommend a buy on ADRO.
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